US strikes Iran
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This hub tracks 65 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
US strikes against Iran are being carried out by air and sea, a US official told
BREAKING: Reports of targeted assassinations in strikes on Iran
Bitcoin falls sharply as strikes begin on Iran
BREAKING: Bitcoin falls sharply as strikes begin on Iran
Omani Foreign Minister is set for an urgent meeting in Washington on Friday with top US officials in a final ditch attempt to avoid strikes on Iran.
12:30 REPORT: US, Iran negotiate on the brink of war
12:30 REPORT: US, Iran negotiate on the brink of war
UPDATE: Democratic US legislators to 'force the vote' on bill to curb Trump's war powers in shadow of Iran tensions LIVE updates:
U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain has been scaled back to only mission critical personnel in anticipation of US strikes on Iran retaliation-FOX
U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain has been scaled back to only emergency personnel in anticipation of US strikes on Iran retaliation.
Per @LucasFoxNews The U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain has been reduced to "mission critical" staffing — fewer than 100 personnel remaining — ahead of potential strikes on Iran, multiple U.S. officials tell Fox News. Ahead of Operation Midnight Hammer in June, the…
US -Iran talks resume
Iran and the US hold the latest round of talks in Geneva on February 26 aimed at resolving their longstanding nuclear dispute and averting new US strikes on Iran following a large-scale military buildup
Iran strikes threaten to deplete US weapons supplies — and put American troops at risk
Trump-Iran is developing missiles to reach the US
Essentially there is an opinion within the Iranian regime that making concessions on large areas, will give the US the incentive to "Go for the Jugular" and withstanding a limited strike as was done in June is more likely to allow the regime to survive long term. [Quoting @WarMonitor3]
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Iranian drones have been spotted operating around the Gulf of Oman near the last known location of the US carrier strike group.
Chances of U.S. strikes against Iran have skyrocketed in the last few days on Polymarket, as the ongoing military buildup in Europe and the Middle East approaches levels last seen prior to the 2003 Invasion of Iraq, with traders predicting that there is a 60% of strikes against…
Chances of U.S. strikes against Iran have skyrocketed in the last few days on Polymarket, as the ongoing military buildup in Europe and the Middle East approaches levels last seen prior to the 2003 Invasion of Iraq, with traders predicting that there is a 60% of strikes against…
Congress risks major loss to Trump over war powers vote on Iran
Trump's foreign policy dilemma laid bare by Iran tensions
BREAKING: Iran's Revolutionary Guard begins military drills in Strait of Hormuz ahead of nuclear talks with US in Geneva Read more:
BREAKING: Iran's Revolutionary Guard begins military drills in Strait of Hormuz ahead of nuclear talks with US in Geneva Read more:
Will the US strike Iran by the end of June?
Polymarket sees this at a 45 percent chance despite the rhetoric on negotiation, it is clear Iran will not make key concessions on ballistic missile stockpiles. What do you think?
Will the US strike Iran by the end of June?
Polymarket sees this at a 45 percent chance despite the rhetoric on negotiation, it is clear Iran will not make key concessions on ballistic missile stockpiles. What do you think?
Will the US strike Iran by the end of June?
Polymarket sees this at a 45 percent chance despite the rhetoric on negotiation, it is clear Iran will not make key concessions on ballistic missile stockpiles. What do you think?
U.S. and Iran set to hold second round of nuclear talks in Geneva
US officials have said the planning for strikes on Iran this time around is much more complex, and they fully expect Iran to retaliate massively.
Iran says it won't negotiate over its missile capabilities
Iran says it won't negotiate over its missile capabilities
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.