US strikes IranMarch 1
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$8.1Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
YESThe Spectator Index98%match99¢+1%
BREAKING: Trump announces strikes against Iran, says goal is to eliminate imminent threats.
NOCGTN Europe99%match1¢-100%
US strikes on Iran being carried out by air, sea, official says
YESFirst Squawk98%match30¢+233%
U.S. military strikes on Iran are underway — NYT
YESDB News98%match30¢+233%
*US MILITARY STRIKES ON IRAN UNDERWAY: NYT
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match86¢-100%
Essentially if the Iranians don't come to the table tomorrow with serious concessions on nuclear the US will likely strike Iran very soon after.
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match22¢+355%
Iran is operating on the basis that U.S. military strikes are inevitable and imminent-NYT
NOFaytuks News98%match78¢-100%
"Iran is operating on the basis that U.S. military strikes are inevitable and imminent", according to Iranian officials -NYT [Quoting @Faytuks]
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NOOSINTdefender98%match76¢-100%
Chances of U.S. strikes against Iran have skyrocketed in the last few days on Polymarket, as the ongoing military buildup in Europe and the Middle East approaches levels last seen prior to the 2003 Invasion of Iraq, with traders predicting that there is a 60% of strikes against…
Where does the news lean?
6YES6NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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See all outcomes for US strikes Iran — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.