US strikes IranMarch 2
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$3.8Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
33 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match100¢
Large US airstrikes on Iranian military positions in Damavand Iran.
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match100¢
US and Israeli strikes on air defence radars in Bandar Abbas Iran.
YES*Walter Bloomberg98%match100¢
US OFFICIALS SEE IRAN STRIKES EXTEND FOR DAYS, MAYBE WEEKS: NYT
YESGlobe Eye News99%match100¢
BREAKING: Iran is striking US bases in Bahrain.
YESFaytuks News98%match100¢
Footage of Iranian missile strike in the vicinity of the US base at Juffair in Bahrain
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match100¢
Iranian ballistic missiles are seen heading westward toward Iraq over the Lorestan province.
YESFirst Squawk98%match100¢
US OFFICIALS SEE IRAN STRIKES EXTEND FOR DAYS, MAYBE WEEKS: NYT
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match100¢
Iranian missiles are hitting Bahrain.
NOThe Spectator Index99%match0¢
BREAKING: Strikes against targets in western Iran
YESFirst Squawk98%match100¢
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: THIS RENEWED MILITARY 'AGGRESSION' COMES WHILE IRAN AND THE U.S. WERE IN THE MIDST OF A DIPLOMATIC PROCESS
YESCGTN America98%match100¢
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: THIS RENEWED MILITARY 'AGGRESSION' COMES WHILE IRAN AND THE U.S. WERE IN THE MIDST OF A DIPLOMATIC PROCESS
YESVisegrád 2498%match100¢
BREAKING: Interceptions of Iranian missiles over Abu Dhabi, UAE.
YESCGTN Europe98%match100¢
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: THIS RENEWED MILITARY 'AGGRESSION' COMES WHILE IRAN AND THE U.S. WERE IN THE MIDST OF A DIPLOMATIC PROCESS
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match100¢
US airforce has struck the Iranian IRGC Naval base at Asaluyeh this morning.
NOFirst Squawk98%match0¢
An Iranian official says that all U.S. bases and interests are within Iran's reach.
YESThe Spectator Index98%match100¢
BREAKING: Iran targeted US navy base in Bahrain
YESReuters98%match100¢
[Replying to @Reuters] The US military initiated a series of strikes against targets in Iran, two US officials told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. The scope of the air and sea operations was not immediately clear >
NOThe White House98%match3¢-100%
President Donald J. Trump on the United States military combat operations in Iran:
YESCGTN America98%match97¢+3%
US to destroy Iranian missile industry, 'annihilate' navy: Trump
NOBNO News98%match3¢-100%
WATCH: Trump statement on U.S. military strikes on Iran
YESCGTN Europe98%match97¢+3%
U.S. STRIKES AGAINST IRAN BEING LAUNCH BY AIR AND BY SEA, U.S. OFFICIAL TELLS REUTERS
YESunusual_whales99%match97¢+3%
Representative Thomas Massie has said the attack on Iran by Israel and the US today was “acts of war unauthorized by Congress”
YESCGTN America98%match97¢+3%
U.S. STRIKES AGAINST IRAN BEING LAUNCH BY AIR AND BY SEA, U.S. OFFICIAL TELLS REUTERS
NOFirst Squawk98%match68¢-100%
U.S. military strikes on Iran are underway — NYT
YESCGTN America99%match32¢+213%
U.S. OFFICIAL CONFIRMS THAT U.S. STRIKES ON IRAN ARE UNDERWAY
NOJennifer Griffin99%match68¢-100%
US launches strikes on Iran: US official tells Fox.
NOBNO News99%match68¢-100%
BREAKING: U.S. strikes on Iran are underway - NYT
YESCGTN America98%match32¢+213%
NEW YORK TIMES CITING U.S. OFFICIAL: U.S. STRIKES ON IRAN ARE UNDERWAY
YESDB News98%match32¢+213%
*US MILITARY STRIKES ON IRAN UNDERWAY: NYT
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match83¢-100%
Essentially if the Iranians don't come to the table tomorrow with serious concessions on nuclear the US will likely strike Iran very soon after.
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match23¢+335%
Iran is operating on the basis that U.S. military strikes are inevitable and imminent-NYT
NOFaytuks News98%match76¢-100%
"Iran is operating on the basis that U.S. military strikes are inevitable and imminent", according to Iranian officials -NYT [Quoting @Faytuks]
>
NOOSINTdefender98%match72¢-100%
Chances of U.S. strikes against Iran have skyrocketed in the last few days on Polymarket, as the ongoing military buildup in Europe and the Middle East approaches levels last seen prior to the 2003 Invasion of Iraq, with traders predicting that there is a 60% of strikes against…
Where does the news lean?
24YES11NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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See all outcomes for US strikes Iran — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.