US strikes IranMarch 8

ResolvedOutcome: YesVol$539KResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

35 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
Large US airstrikes on Iranian military positions in Damavand Iran.
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match100¢
BREAKING: Iranian officials were the first targets of US-Israeli strikes this morning-Reuters
NOStatus-6 (War & Military News)98%match0¢
New Israeli/US strikes reported in Kermanshah, western Iran.
YESThe Spectator Index98%match100¢
US-ISRAELI STRIKES ON IRAN - Dozens of targets across several waves, including presidential building and Ministry of Intelligence. - Trump calls for Iranian people to take over government - Iran announces retaliation - Iran targets US bases in region, strikes on US navy base…
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
US and Israeli strikes on air defence radars in Bandar Abbas Iran.
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match0¢
US OFFICIALS SEE IRAN STRIKES EXTEND FOR DAYS, MAYBE WEEKS: NYT
NOGlobe Eye News99%match0¢
BREAKING: Iran is striking US bases in Bahrain.
NOFaytuks News98%match0¢
Footage of Iranian missile strike in the vicinity of the US base at Juffair in Bahrain
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
Iranian ballistic missiles are seen heading westward toward Iraq over the Lorestan province.
NOFirst Squawk98%match0¢
US OFFICIALS SEE IRAN STRIKES EXTEND FOR DAYS, MAYBE WEEKS: NYT
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
Iranian missiles are hitting Bahrain.
NOThe Spectator Index99%match0¢
BREAKING: Strikes against targets in western Iran
YESFirst Squawk98%match100¢
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: THIS RENEWED MILITARY 'AGGRESSION' COMES WHILE IRAN AND THE U.S. WERE IN THE MIDST OF A DIPLOMATIC PROCESS
NOCGTN America98%match0¢
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: THIS RENEWED MILITARY 'AGGRESSION' COMES WHILE IRAN AND THE U.S. WERE IN THE MIDST OF A DIPLOMATIC PROCESS
NOCGTN Europe98%match0¢
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: THIS RENEWED MILITARY 'AGGRESSION' COMES WHILE IRAN AND THE U.S. WERE IN THE MIDST OF A DIPLOMATIC PROCESS
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
US airforce has struck the Iranian IRGC Naval base at Asaluyeh this morning.
YESVisegrád 2498%match100¢
BREAKING: Footage of the Iranian missile strike in Bahrain
YESGlobe Eye News98%match100¢
BREAKING: Iran targets US Navy base in Bahrain.
YESThe Spectator Index98%match100¢
BREAKING: Iran targeted US navy base in Bahrain
NOReuters98%match0¢
[Replying to @Reuters] The US military initiated a series of strikes against targets in Iran, two US officials told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. The scope of the air and sea operations was not immediately clear >
NOFirst Squawk98%match2¢-100%
US strikes against Iran are being carried out by air and sea, a US official told
NOCGTN Europe99%match2¢-100%
US strikes on Iran being carried out by air, sea, official says
NOCGTN Europe98%match2¢-100%
U.S. STRIKES AGAINST IRAN BEING LAUNCH BY AIR AND BY SEA, U.S. OFFICIAL TELLS REUTERS
NOCGTN America98%match2¢-100%
U.S. STRIKES AGAINST IRAN BEING LAUNCH BY AIR AND BY SEA, U.S. OFFICIAL TELLS REUTERS
NOFirst Squawk98%match51¢-100%
U.S. military strikes on Iran are underway — NYT
NOCGTN America99%match51¢-100%
U.S. OFFICIAL CONFIRMS THAT U.S. STRIKES ON IRAN ARE UNDERWAY
NOJennifer Griffin99%match51¢-100%
US launches strikes on Iran: US official tells Fox.
NOBNO News98%match51¢-100%
BREAKING: Strikes on Iran targeted presidential building - Al Arabiya
NOBNO News99%match51¢-100%
BREAKING: U.S. strikes on Iran are underway - NYT
NOCGTN America98%match51¢-100%
NEW YORK TIMES CITING U.S. OFFICIAL: U.S. STRIKES ON IRAN ARE UNDERWAY
YESThe Spectator Index98%match49¢+104%
BREAKING: US military is participating in strikes on Iran, according to NY Times report.
YESDB News98%match49¢+104%
*US MILITARY STRIKES ON IRAN UNDERWAY: NYT
NOFirst Squawk98%match51¢-100%
Bitcoin falls sharply as strikes begin on Iran
NOThe Spectator Index98%match51¢-100%
BREAKING: Bitcoin falls sharply as strikes begin on Iran
NOCGTN Europe98%match70¢-100%
US -Iran talks resume

Where does the news lean?

10YES31NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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