Next French Presidential Election

OpenOutcomes128as of

Market pricing makes Marine Le Pen the favorite at 46% across 128 tracked outcomes, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

Left-wing primary: after Raphaël Glucksmann's victory, are Olivier Faure and François Hollande out of the running?
Left-wing primary: after Raphaël Glucksmann's victory, are Olivier Faure and François Hollande out of the running?
2027 Presidential Poll: Marine Le Pen far ahead, leading Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the second round in all scenarios
LIVE 2027 Presidential Election: Bernard Cazeneuve "congratulates" Raphaël Glucksmann and calls for the unification of the social-democratic left "without an alliance with LFI"
2027 Presidential Election: A new poll still places Marine Le Pen far ahead in the first round, alongside Jean-Luc Mélenchon, despite the Bardella affair.
Presidential election 2027: a new poll places Marine Le Pen still far ahead in the first round, alongside Jean-Luc Mélenchon, despite the Bardella affair
Presidential election 2027. Raphaël Glucksmann wins the left-wing primary: "The choice is clear"
Presidential election: Government spokesperson Maud Bregeon calls on "all political leaders on the right and center," including "Gabriel Attal and Bruno Retailleau," to "rally behind Édouard Philippe"
LIVE 2027 Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen still far ahead in the first round according to a poll, Jean-Luc Mélenchon qualified in every scenario
LIVE 2027 Presidential Election: Raphaël Glucksmann, the clear winner of the Socialist primary, declares that "the democratic left is back"
Raphaël Glucksmann overwhelmingly elected as the social-democratic left-wing candidate for the presidential election
Raphaël Glucksmann wins the Social Democratic primary: former President François Hollande congratulated the winner via message
Raphaël Glucksmann's victory in the Social Democratic primary: the reaction of Marine Tondelier, the Green Party candidate for the presidential election
Glucksmann wins centre-left ticket for France’s presidential election
France: Raphaël Glucksmann elected candidate of the social-democratic left for the 2027 presidential election after his victory in the first round of the primary
Presidential election 2027: Raphaël Glucksmann nominated as the social-democratic left-wing candidate after the primary
Presidential election 2027: winner of the primary in the first round, Raphaël Glucksmann becomes the candidate of the non-Mélenchonist left
Marine Le Penlesechos.fr97%match61¢-11%
Presidential election 2027: Business leaders hardly convinced by Marine Le Pen's budget proposal
Gabriel Attalfranceinfo.fr94%match97¢+1%
Live: #PRESIDENTIAL Struggling in the polls and facing competition from Édouard Philippe within the centrist bloc, Gabriel Attal attempted to revive his presidential campaign at a rally in Lyon before some 2,000 people...
2027 Presidential Poll: Glucksmann far ahead in voting intentions for the left-wing primary, Royal ahead of Faure
Jordan Bardella shows his determination: "I'm going to spend my time getting Marine Le Pen elected." Purchasing power, security, public order, standards: for Jordan Bardella, the priorities of the French people must be at the heart of the next presidential election. #TheBigInterview
Marine Le Penleparisien.fr98%match43¢+7%
2027 presidential election poll: Marine Le Pen judged most competent to lead the country, ahead of Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Gabriel AttalFrench Media98%match97¢+1%
Presidential election 2027: "Neither the candidacies of Gabriel Attal nor Édouard Philippe have managed to establish themselves as serious and credible candidates," declares Manuel Bompard #BFM2
David Lisnardleparisien.fr98%match13¢-8%
2027 Presidential Election: Genuine Comeback or Inflated Odds? Why David Lisnard is Doing Great on Polymarket
2027 Presidential Election: Gérard Larcher, LR President of the Senate, expresses his "unreserved" support for Bruno Retailleau
Who will lead the centrist bloc to victory in 2027? Judging that neither Édouard Philippe nor he himself is capable of achieving this at this stage, Renaissance candidate Gabriel Attal is calling for a broader coalition, even if it means holding a primary. Interview
Jordan Bardellartl.fr98%match99¢
"A particularly chaotic start to the campaign": can "Mediapart's" revelations about Jordan Bardella influence the 2027 presidential election?
Francois Hollande hints at running again for French presidency
François Hollanderbc.ru92%match6¢-50%
Former French President Hollande has indicated he may run again in the elections.
Marine Le Penlefigaro.fr98%match38¢+21%
Presidential election 2027: Marine Le Pen widens her lead in the second round against both Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, according to a poll

What is this event about?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).