Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Open37as of
Market pricing makes Marine Le Pen the favorite at 87% across 37 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Other33%
All further outcomes (7 more):
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · Clémentine Autain · Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · François Bayrou · Yaël Braun-Pivet · Carole Delga · Clémence Guetté
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin believes that Édouard Philippe is "the only person who can win the presidential election and secure a majority in the National Assembly"
Live: It's 4 PM, here's a news update: • #POLITICS The First Secretary of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, announced to the members of his parliamentary group his candidacy for the left-wing primary...
Presidential election: "We must have only one candidate [on the right] in the first round," says Gérald Darmanin, Minister of Justice and supporter of Édouard Philippe
Live: #POLITICS During his political comeback in Tourcoing (Nord), Gérald Darmanin justified his support for Édouard Philippe in the presidential election by stating that he was "the only person who can win," but also...
LIVE
Presidential election: Gérald Darmanin asserts that "the only person who can win" in 2027 is Édouard Philippe
LIVE
Presidential election: Édouard Philippe endorses Gérald Darmanin, who declares that economic efforts are necessary
LIVE
Presidential election: Édouard Philippe endorses Gérald Darmanin, who declares that economic efforts are necessary
Live: Gérald Darmanin asserts that "the only person who can win" in 2027 is Édouard Philippe
2027 Presidential Election: "I want to be a candidate," Dominique de Villepin reveals more of himself and accuses Philippe of "playing into Le Pen's hands" on immigration
LIVE
Presidential election: Dominique de Villepin says he "wants to be a candidate" and that he has "several hundred endorsements"
Presidential election 2027: Olivier Faure a candidate in the primary organized by the Socialist Party and Place Publique
2027: "I do not support Olivier Faure's strategy, which I consider a losing one for the presidential election," states Laurence Rossignol, Socialist Party senator.
Olivier Faure, candidate in the left-wing primary
Presidential election 2027: the first secretary of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, will be a candidate in the left-wing primary
Presidential election: Olivier Faure will announce his candidacy for the left-wing primary ahead of 2027
Presidential election: Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure will announce his candidacy for the left-wing primary ahead of 2027
BREAKING NEWS
Presidential election: Olivier Faure will announce his candidacy for the left-wing primary ahead of 2027
Presidential election 2027: The First Secretary of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, will run in the left-wing primary
LIVE
Presidential election: Sébastien Lecornu reaffirms he is not a candidate
Presidential election 2027: Jean-Luc Mélenchon loses ground, Raphaël Glucksmann gains ground, according to a poll
"Another future is possible": in Blois, Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure takes another step towards the primary
Live: BFMTV POLL. 2027 Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen wins in all scenarios, Édouard Philippe well-positioned to qualify for the second round
BFMTV POLL
2027 Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen wins in all scenarios, Édouard Philippe well-positioned to qualify for the second round
BFMTV POLL. 2027 Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen wins in all scenarios, Édouard Philippe well-positioned to qualify for the second round
When asked about "a union of the right," Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally, "extends a hand to Republican voters" for this presidential election.
LIVE
According to Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen is the "natural candidate" of the National Rally in the presidential election
Live: For Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen is the "natural candidate" of the National Rally in the presidential election
"I will keep my word and I will campaign alongside her," assures Jordan Bardella, regarding Marine Le Pen's presidential candidacy. The president of the National Rally is a guest on BFMTV at 7 p.m. this Saturday
Presidential election 2027: In Cannes, French business leader Pierre Gattaz acknowledges convergences with David Lisnard's political project
"I will keep my word and I will campaign alongside her," assures Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally, regarding Marine Le Pen's presidential candidacy.
What is this event about?
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).