Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Open37as of
Market pricing makes Marine Le Pen the favorite at 91% across 37 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
All further outcomes (7 more):
Manuel Bompard · Mathilde Panot · Other · Sarah Knafo · Juan Branco · Clémence Guetté · Sébastien Lecornu
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
2027 Presidential Election: "It's violent," Valérie Trierweiler warns Léa Salamé after Raphaël Glucksmann's primary victory
France’s Glucksmann notched a crushing primary victory. But he needs more allies to win the presidency.
French far-right candidate Marine Le Pen emerges as frontrunner, driving market sentiment; doubts about fiscal expansion persist ahead of the presidential election.
Latest poll findings on French elections: Le Pen and Mélenchon advance to second round
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Reuters News Agency announced that according to the findings of a new poll, French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and her far-left rival Jean-Luc Mélenchon have increased their gap with other candidates and will face each other in the second round of the election. According to the results of a new poll by Toluna Harris Interactive, conducted between October 5 and 8 (October 13 and 16), Le Pen will win between 35 and 37 percent of the vote in different scenarios and will be the leader in the first round. @YjcNewsChannel
Latest poll findings on French elections: Le Pen and Mélenchon advance to second round
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Reuters News Agency announced that according to the findings of a new poll, French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and her far-left rival Jean-Luc Mélenchon have increased their gap with other candidates and will face each other in the second round of the election. According to the results of a new poll by Toluna Harris Interactive, conducted between October 5 and 8 (October 13 and 16), Le Pen will win between 35 and 37 percent of the vote in different scenarios and will be the leader in the first round. @YjcNewsChannel
2027 Presidential Election: After the Primary, Raphaël Glucksmann faces the arduous challenge of uniting
Latest poll results on French elections: Le Pen and Mélenchon advance to second round
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Reuters News Agency wrote that the results of a poll published today show that French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and her far-left rival Jean-Luc Mélenchon have widened their gap with other candidates and will face each other in the second round of the election. According to the results of a new poll by Toluna Harris Interactive, conducted between October 5 and 8 (October 13 and 16), Le Pen will win between 35 and 37 percent of the vote in different scenarios and will be the leader in the first round.
#İRNA_جهان @IRNA_1313
Latest poll results on French elections: Le Pen and Mélenchon advance to second round
⠀
Reuters News Agency wrote that the results of a poll published today show that French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and her far-left rival Jean-Luc Mélenchon have widened their gap with other candidates and will face each other in the second round of the election. According to the results of a new poll by Toluna Harris Interactive, conducted between October 5 and 8 (October 13 and 16), Le Pen will win between 35 and 37 percent of the vote in different scenarios and will be the leader in the first round.
#İRNA_جهان @IRNA_1313
Left-wing primary: after Raphaël Glucksmann's victory, are Olivier Faure and François Hollande out of the running?
Congratulations to Raphaël Glucksmann on his victory in the Socialist and Democratic Left primary. Voters have made their voices heard in large numbers, and it is now up to us to unite behind our candidate. I commend the commitment of Olivier Faure and the other candidates, who contributed to a high-quality debate. I urge them to forge a new unity in the face of the challenges ahead.
2027 Presidential Election: A new poll still places Marine Le Pen far ahead in the first round, alongside Jean-Luc Mélenchon, despite the Bardella affair.
Presidential election 2027: a new poll places Marine Le Pen still far ahead in the first round, alongside Jean-Luc Mélenchon, despite the Bardella affair
Presidential election 2027. Raphaël Glucksmann wins the left-wing primary: "The choice is clear"
Presidential election: Government spokesperson Maud Bregeon calls on "all political leaders on the right and center," including "Gabriel Attal and Bruno Retailleau," to "rally behind Édouard Philippe"
Presidential election: Government spokesperson Maud Bregeon calls on "all political leaders on the right and center," including "Gabriel Attal and Bruno Retailleau," to "rally behind Édouard Philippe"
LIVE
2027 Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen still far ahead in the first round according to a poll, Jean-Luc Mélenchon qualified in every scenario
LIVE
2027 Presidential Election: Raphaël Glucksmann, the clear winner of the Socialist primary, declares that "the democratic left is back"
Live: Marine Le Pen still far ahead in the first round according to a poll, Jean-Luc Mélenchon qualified in every scenario
Live: Marine Le Pen still far ahead in the first round according to a poll, Jean-Luc Mélenchon qualified in every scenario
Live: #PRESIDENTIAL How to explain Raphaël Glucksmann's resounding victory in the social-democratic left-wing primary?...
RTL POLL - 2027 Presidential Election: Heading towards a Le Pen-Mélenchon duel, the Bardella affair has no effect on RN voting intentions
Presidential election 2027: Raphaël Glucksmann, winner of the left-wing primary, faces the challenge of mobilizing the social-democratic family for the battle
Raphaël Glucksmann overwhelmingly elected as the social-democratic left-wing candidate for the presidential election
Raphaël Glucksmann wins the Social Democratic primary: "From now on, not a second can be wasted," the presidential candidate tells his supporters
LIVE
Socialist Party/Public Square Primary: Raphaël Glucksmann asserts, after his victory, that "the democratic left is back"
Raphael Glucksmann elected centre-left French presidential candidate
Raphaël Glucksmann wins the left-wing primary: "I am very happy for my socialist family," declares Boris Vallaud, Socialist MP for Landes. "There is momentum, there is strength," continues Glucksmann's supporter. #canal16 #franceinfo
MEP Glucksmann wins French center-left primary, becoming candidate for presidency
LIVE
"We now have a candidate": Olivier Faure, who came in second in the primary, congratulates Raphaël Glucksmann
LIVE. "We now have a candidate": Olivier Faure, who came in second in the primary, congratulates Raphaël Glucksmann
What is this event about?
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).