US strikes IranJune 30

ResolvedOutcome: YesVol$9.2MResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match45¢+122%
Will the US strike Iran by the end of June? Polymarket sees this at a 45 percent chance despite the rhetoric on negotiation, it is clear Iran will not make key concessions on ballistic missile stockpiles. What do you think?
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match47¢-100%
Trump-“Iran will not possess nuclear weapons or missiles” Iran will not give the missiles up, strikes are coming.
YESBenzinga99%match44¢+127%
Polymarket Wagerers Predict US Strike on Iran by End of June.
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match81¢+23%
Will the US strike Iran by June? Polymarket sees this at an 81 percent chance of occurring, amid Donald Trumps continuous comments about intervention and Israeli signalling on strikes. What do you think?
YESVisegrád 2499%match76¢+32%
Trump has said that the United States will take "very strong action" in Iran. Polymarket traders have their money on the U.S. to strike Iran by June 30th, 2026.

Where does the news lean?

5YES1NO1neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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