US strikes IranMarch 11
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$190Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
28 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
YESThe Spectator Index98%match100¢
BREAKING: Senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards commanders and political officials among those killed in strikes, according to Reuters report.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
Large US airstrikes on Iranian military positions in Damavand Iran.
NOStatus-6 (War & Military News)98%match0¢
New Israeli/US strikes reported in Kermanshah, western Iran.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
US and Israeli strikes on air defence radars in Bandar Abbas Iran.
NOFaytuks News98%match0¢
Footage of Iranian missile strike in the vicinity of the US base at Juffair in Bahrain
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
Iranian ballistic missiles are seen heading westward toward Iraq over the Lorestan province.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
Iranian missiles are hitting Bahrain.
NOThe Spectator Index99%match0¢
BREAKING: Strikes against targets in western Iran
NOVisegrád 2498%match0¢
BREAKING: Interceptions of Iranian missiles over Abu Dhabi, UAE.
YESVisegrád 2498%match100¢
BREAKING: Footage of the Iranian missile strike in Bahrain
NOReuters98%match0¢
[Replying to @Reuters] The US military initiated a series of strikes against targets in Iran, two US officials told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. The scope of the air and sea operations was not immediately clear >
NOBBC News (World)98%match2¢-100%
RT @BBCBreaking: President Donald Trump confirms US has launched "major combat operations in Iran" - follow latest
YEStradfi news98%match98¢+2%
*TRUMP: WE'RE GOING TO DESTROY IRANIAN MISSLES, AND THEIR MISSLE INDUSTRY, ANNHIALATE THEIR NAVY
YESOSINTdefender98%match98¢+2%
As strikes are ongoing against Iran, all flights over Iran and Iraq have now diverted.
NOFirst Squawk98%match2¢-100%
US strikes against Iran are being carried out by air and sea, a US official told
NOtradfi news98%match2¢-100%
*US OFFICIAL: IRAN STRIKES FOCUSED ON MILITARY TARGETS
NOCGTN Europe99%match2¢-100%
US strikes on Iran being carried out by air, sea, official says
NOFirst Squawk98%match46¢-100%
U.S. military strikes on Iran are underway — NYT
NOCGTN America99%match46¢-100%
U.S. OFFICIAL CONFIRMS THAT U.S. STRIKES ON IRAN ARE UNDERWAY
NOJennifer Griffin99%match46¢-100%
US launches strikes on Iran: US official tells Fox.
NOBNO News98%match46¢-100%
BREAKING: Strikes on Iran targeted presidential building - Al Arabiya
NOBNO News99%match46¢-100%
BREAKING: U.S. strikes on Iran are underway - NYT
YESFirst Squawk98%match54¢+85%
BREAKING: The US is striking Iran according to Wall Street Journal report.
NOThe Spectator Index98%match46¢-100%
BREAKING: The US is striking Iran according to Wall Street Journal report.
NOThe Spectator Index98%match46¢-100%
BREAKING: US military is participating in strikes on Iran, according to NY Times report.
YESDB News98%match54¢+85%
*US MILITARY STRIKES ON IRAN UNDERWAY: NYT
NOFirst Squawk98%match46¢-100%
Bitcoin falls sharply as strikes begin on Iran
NOThe Spectator Index98%match46¢-100%
BREAKING: Bitcoin falls sharply as strikes begin on Iran
Where does the news lean?
7YES23NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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See all outcomes for US strikes Iran — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.