US strikes IranMarch 5
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$1.6Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
19 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
YESOSINTdefender98%match100¢
Videos showing the impact and aftermath of an Iranian missile strike against the U.S. Fifth Fleet Naval support Activity installation in Bahrain after the first few waves of U.S.-Israeli strikes. Strikes are now ongoing as both sides exchange fire. At this time Iran has targeted…
YESGlobe Eye News99%match100¢
BREAKING: Iran is striking US bases in Bahrain.
YESFirst Squawk98%match100¢
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: THIS RENEWED MILITARY 'AGGRESSION' COMES WHILE IRAN AND THE U.S. WERE IN THE MIDST OF A DIPLOMATIC PROCESS
NOCGTN America98%match0¢
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: THIS RENEWED MILITARY 'AGGRESSION' COMES WHILE IRAN AND THE U.S. WERE IN THE MIDST OF A DIPLOMATIC PROCESS
NOCGTN Europe98%match0¢
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: THIS RENEWED MILITARY 'AGGRESSION' COMES WHILE IRAN AND THE U.S. WERE IN THE MIDST OF A DIPLOMATIC PROCESS
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
US airforce has struck the Iranian IRGC Naval base at Asaluyeh this morning.
NOFirst Squawk98%match0¢
An Iranian official says that all U.S. bases and interests are within Iran's reach.
NOBBC News (World)98%match1¢-100%
RT @BBCBreaking: President Donald Trump confirms US has launched "major combat operations in Iran" - follow latest
NOFirst Squawk98%match60¢-100%
U.S. military strikes on Iran are underway — NYT
NOJennifer Griffin99%match60¢-100%
US launches strikes on Iran: US official tells Fox.
NOBNO News98%match60¢-100%
BREAKING: Strikes on Iran targeted presidential building - Al Arabiya
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match76¢-100%
U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain has been scaled back to only mission critical personnel in anticipation of US strikes on Iran retaliation-FOX
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match76¢-100%
U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain has been scaled back to only emergency personnel in anticipation of US strikes on Iran retaliation.
NOJennifer Griffin98%match76¢-100%
Per @LucasFoxNews The U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain has been reduced to "mission critical" staffing — fewer than 100 personnel remaining — ahead of potential strikes on Iran, multiple U.S. officials tell Fox News. Ahead of Operation Midnight Hammer in June, the…
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match74¢-100%
Essentially if the Iranians don't come to the table tomorrow with serious concessions on nuclear the US will likely strike Iran very soon after.
YES*Walter Bloomberg98%match31¢+223%
Trump: Iran is working on missiles that will soon reach US
YESCGTN Europe98%match31¢+223%
Trump: Iran is working on missiles that will soon reach US
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match28¢+257%
Iran is operating on the basis that U.S. military strikes are inevitable and imminent-NYT
NOFaytuks News98%match72¢-100%
"Iran is operating on the basis that U.S. military strikes are inevitable and imminent", according to Iranian officials -NYT [Quoting @Faytuks]
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Where does the news lean?
6YES14NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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See all outcomes for US strikes Iran — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.