US strikes IranMarch 31
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$22.2Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NOFirst Squawk98%match2¢-100%
US strikes against Iran are being carried out by air and sea, a US official told
YESOSINTdefender98%match63¢+59%
Chances of U.S. strikes against Iran have skyrocketed in the last few days on Polymarket, as the ongoing military buildup in Europe and the Middle East approaches levels last seen prior to the 2003 Invasion of Iraq, with traders predicting that there is a 60% of strikes against…
NOOSINTdefender98%match61¢-100%
Traders on Polymarket predict that the chance of imminent military action by the United States against Iran still remain low following Friday’s talks in Oman, with the chance of strikes by the end of March at only 42%.
NOVisegrád 2499%match29¢-100%
Trump has said that the United States will take "very strong action" in Iran. Polymarket traders have their money on the U.S. to strike Iran by June 30th, 2026.
NOBreaking91199%match43¢-100%
TRUMP CONSIDERS STRIKES ON IRAN
Where does the news lean?
1YES6NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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