US strikes IranMarch 15

ResolvedOutcome: YesVol$6.6MResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

28 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
BREAKING: Iranian officials were the first targets of US-Israeli strikes this morning-Reuters
NOThe Spectator Index98%match0¢
US-ISRAELI STRIKES ON IRAN - Dozens of targets across several waves, including presidential building and Ministry of Intelligence. - Trump calls for Iranian people to take over government - Iran announces retaliation - Iran targets US bases in region, strikes on US navy base…
NOGlobe Eye News99%match0¢
BREAKING: Iran is striking US bases in Bahrain.
NOFaytuks News98%match0¢
Footage of Iranian missile strike in the vicinity of the US base at Juffair in Bahrain
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
Iranian missiles are hitting Bahrain.
YESFirst Squawk98%match100¢
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: THIS RENEWED MILITARY 'AGGRESSION' COMES WHILE IRAN AND THE U.S. WERE IN THE MIDST OF A DIPLOMATIC PROCESS
NOCGTN America98%match0¢
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: THIS RENEWED MILITARY 'AGGRESSION' COMES WHILE IRAN AND THE U.S. WERE IN THE MIDST OF A DIPLOMATIC PROCESS
NOCGTN Europe98%match0¢
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: THIS RENEWED MILITARY 'AGGRESSION' COMES WHILE IRAN AND THE U.S. WERE IN THE MIDST OF A DIPLOMATIC PROCESS
YESGlobe Eye News98%match100¢
BREAKING: Iran says all US bases in the Middle East are now targets.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
US airforce has struck the Iranian IRGC Naval base at Asaluyeh this morning.
YESVisegrád 2498%match100¢
BREAKING: Footage of the Iranian missile strike in Bahrain
YESGlobe Eye News98%match100¢
BREAKING: Iran targets US Navy base in Bahrain.
NOThe Spectator Index98%match0¢
BREAKING: Iran targeted US navy base in Bahrain
NOCGTN America98%match3¢-100%
US to destroy Iranian missile industry, 'annihilate' navy: Trump
NOunusual_whales99%match3¢-100%
Representative Thomas Massie has said the attack on Iran by Israel and the US today was “acts of war unauthorized by Congress”
NOBNO News98%match40¢-100%
BREAKING: Strikes on Iran targeted presidential building - Al Arabiya
YESFirst Squawk98%match60¢+67%
BREAKING: The US is striking Iran according to Wall Street Journal report.
NOThe Spectator Index98%match40¢-100%
BREAKING: The US is striking Iran according to Wall Street Journal report.
NOThe Spectator Index98%match40¢-100%
BREAKING: Reports of targeted assassinations in strikes on Iran
NOFirst Squawk98%match40¢-100%
Bitcoin falls sharply as strikes begin on Iran
NOThe Spectator Index98%match40¢-100%
BREAKING: Bitcoin falls sharply as strikes begin on Iran
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match57¢-100%
U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain has been scaled back to only mission critical personnel in anticipation of US strikes on Iran retaliation-FOX
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match57¢-100%
U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain has been scaled back to only emergency personnel in anticipation of US strikes on Iran retaliation.
NOJennifer Griffin98%match57¢-100%
Per @LucasFoxNews The U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain has been reduced to "mission critical" staffing — fewer than 100 personnel remaining — ahead of potential strikes on Iran, multiple U.S. officials tell Fox News. Ahead of Operation Midnight Hammer in June, the…
NOStatus-6 (War & Military News)98%match51¢-100%
Iran has been loading oil onto tankers at a rapid pace in recent days, a potential sign of preparations in anticipation of US strikes, Bloomberg reports.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match57¢-100%
Iran is operating on the basis that U.S. military strikes are inevitable and imminent-NYT
YESOSINTdefender98%match51¢+96%
Chances of U.S. strikes against Iran have skyrocketed in the last few days on Polymarket, as the ongoing military buildup in Europe and the Middle East approaches levels last seen prior to the 2003 Invasion of Iraq, with traders predicting that there is a 60% of strikes against…
NOReuters98%match76¢-100%
Iran says potential energy, mining and aircraft deals on table in talks with US

Where does the news lean?

9YES25NO2neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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