US strikes IranMarch 13

ResolvedOutcome: YesVol$283KResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

22 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
Large US airstrikes on Iranian military positions in Damavand Iran.
NOThe Spectator Index98%match0¢
US-ISRAELI STRIKES ON IRAN - Dozens of targets across several waves, including presidential building and Ministry of Intelligence. - Trump calls for Iranian people to take over government - Iran announces retaliation - Iran targets US bases in region, strikes on US navy base…
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
Iranian ballistic missiles are seen heading westward toward Iraq over the Lorestan province.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
Iranian missiles are hitting Bahrain.
NOThe Spectator Index99%match0¢
BREAKING: Strikes against targets in western Iran
YESFirst Squawk98%match100¢
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: THIS RENEWED MILITARY 'AGGRESSION' COMES WHILE IRAN AND THE U.S. WERE IN THE MIDST OF A DIPLOMATIC PROCESS
NOCGTN America98%match0¢
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: THIS RENEWED MILITARY 'AGGRESSION' COMES WHILE IRAN AND THE U.S. WERE IN THE MIDST OF A DIPLOMATIC PROCESS
NOCGTN Europe98%match0¢
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: THIS RENEWED MILITARY 'AGGRESSION' COMES WHILE IRAN AND THE U.S. WERE IN THE MIDST OF A DIPLOMATIC PROCESS
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
US airforce has struck the Iranian IRGC Naval base at Asaluyeh this morning.
NOThe White House98%match1¢-100%
President Donald J. Trump on the United States military combat operations in Iran:
NOThe Spectator Index98%match1¢-100%
BREAKING: Trump announces strikes against Iran, says goal is to eliminate imminent threats.
NOFirst Squawk98%match1¢-100%
US strikes against Iran are being carried out by air and sea, a US official told
NOtradfi news98%match1¢-100%
*US OFFICIAL: IRAN STRIKES FOCUSED ON MILITARY TARGETS
NOCGTN Europe99%match1¢-100%
US strikes on Iran being carried out by air, sea, official says
NOCGTN Europe98%match1¢-100%
U.S. STRIKES AGAINST IRAN BEING LAUNCH BY AIR AND BY SEA, U.S. OFFICIAL TELLS REUTERS
NOCGTN America98%match1¢-100%
U.S. STRIKES AGAINST IRAN BEING LAUNCH BY AIR AND BY SEA, U.S. OFFICIAL TELLS REUTERS
NOCGTN America99%match44¢-100%
U.S. OFFICIAL CONFIRMS THAT U.S. STRIKES ON IRAN ARE UNDERWAY
YESFirst Squawk98%match56¢+79%
BREAKING: The US is striking Iran according to Wall Street Journal report.
NOCGTN America98%match44¢-100%
NEW YORK TIMES CITING U.S. OFFICIAL: U.S. STRIKES ON IRAN ARE UNDERWAY
NOThe Spectator Index98%match44¢-100%
BREAKING: The US is striking Iran according to Wall Street Journal report.
NOThe Spectator Index98%match44¢-100%
BREAKING: US military is participating in strikes on Iran, according to NY Times report.
NOThe Spectator Index98%match44¢-100%
BREAKING: Reports of targeted assassinations in strikes on Iran

Where does the news lean?

2YES23NO1neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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