US strikes IranMarch 14
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$358Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NOThe Spectator Index98%match0¢
US-ISRAELI STRIKES ON IRAN - Dozens of targets across several waves, including presidential building and Ministry of Intelligence. - Trump calls for Iranian people to take over government - Iran announces retaliation - Iran targets US bases in region, strikes on US navy base…
NOFaytuks News98%match0¢
Footage of Iranian missile strike in the vicinity of the US base at Juffair in Bahrain
NOThe Spectator Index99%match0¢
BREAKING: Strikes against targets in western Iran
NOunusual_whales98%match1¢-100%
Representative Thomas Massie has said the attack on Iran by Israel and the US today was “acts of war unauthorized by Congress”
NOBNO News98%match41¢-100%
BREAKING: Strikes on Iran targeted presidential building - Al Arabiya
NOBNO News99%match41¢-100%
BREAKING: U.S. strikes on Iran are underway - NYT
NOThe Spectator Index98%match41¢-100%
BREAKING: Reports of targeted assassinations in strikes on Iran
Where does the news lean?
0YES9NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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