US strikes IranMarch 6

ResolvedOutcome: YesVol$1.0MResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match73¢-100%
U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain has been scaled back to only mission critical personnel in anticipation of US strikes on Iran retaliation-FOX
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match73¢-100%
U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain has been scaled back to only emergency personnel in anticipation of US strikes on Iran retaliation.

Where does the news lean?

1YES2NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Related markets

See all outcomes for US strikes Iran — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.

Trending now