US strikes IranMarch 12
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$198Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
YESVisegrád 2498%match100¢
BREAKING: Footage of the Iranian missile strike in Bahrain
NOBBC News (World)98%match2¢-100%
RT @BBCBreaking: President Donald Trump confirms US has launched "major combat operations in Iran" - follow latest
NOunusual_whales99%match2¢-100%
Representative Thomas Massie has said the attack on Iran by Israel and the US today was “acts of war unauthorized by Congress”
YESFirst Squawk98%match55¢+82%
BREAKING: The US is striking Iran according to Wall Street Journal report.
NOThe Spectator Index98%match45¢-100%
BREAKING: The US is striking Iran according to Wall Street Journal report.
NOThe Hill98%match63¢-100%
12:30 REPORT: US, Iran negotiate on the brink of war
Where does the news lean?
2YES4NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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See all outcomes for US strikes Iran — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.