US strikes IranMarch 7

ResolvedOutcome: YesVol$2.5MResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

18 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
Large US airstrikes on Iranian military positions in Damavand Iran.
YESStatus-6 (War & Military News)98%match100¢
New Israeli/US strikes reported in Kermanshah, western Iran.
NOGlobe Eye News98%match0¢
BREAKING: Iran is striking US bases in Bahrain.
NOFaytuks News98%match0¢
Footage of Iranian missile strike in the vicinity of the US base at Juffair in Bahrain
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
Iranian ballistic missiles are seen heading westward toward Iraq over the Lorestan province.
NOThe Spectator Index99%match0¢
BREAKING: Strikes against targets in western Iran
YESFirst Squawk98%match100¢
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: THIS RENEWED MILITARY 'AGGRESSION' COMES WHILE IRAN AND THE U.S. WERE IN THE MIDST OF A DIPLOMATIC PROCESS
NOCGTN America98%match0¢
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: THIS RENEWED MILITARY 'AGGRESSION' COMES WHILE IRAN AND THE U.S. WERE IN THE MIDST OF A DIPLOMATIC PROCESS
NOCGTN Europe98%match0¢
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: THIS RENEWED MILITARY 'AGGRESSION' COMES WHILE IRAN AND THE U.S. WERE IN THE MIDST OF A DIPLOMATIC PROCESS
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match0¢
US airforce has struck the Iranian IRGC Naval base at Asaluyeh this morning.
NOFirst Squawk98%match0¢
An Iranian official says that all U.S. bases and interests are within Iran's reach.
NOBNO News98%match2¢-100%
WATCH: Trump statement on U.S. military strikes on Iran
NOThe Spectator Index98%match2¢-100%
BREAKING: Trump announces strikes against Iran, says goal is to eliminate imminent threats.
YESCGTN Europe98%match98¢+2%
SEVEN MISSILES HIT AREA NEAR PRESIDENTIAL PALACE AND SUPREME LEADER KHAMENEI'S COMPOUND - TASNIM REPORTS
NOCGTN America99%match54¢-100%
U.S. OFFICIAL CONFIRMS THAT U.S. STRIKES ON IRAN ARE UNDERWAY
NOCGTN America98%match54¢-100%
NEW YORK TIMES CITING U.S. OFFICIAL: U.S. STRIKES ON IRAN ARE UNDERWAY
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match65¢-100%
Essentially if the Iranians don't come to the table tomorrow with serious concessions on nuclear the US will likely strike Iran very soon after.
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match33¢+203%
Iran is operating on the basis that U.S. military strikes are inevitable and imminent-NYT

Where does the news lean?

9YES14NO1neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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