US strikes IranMarch 3
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$1.9Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NOBNO News98%match2¢-100%
WATCH: Trump statement on U.S. military strikes on Iran
NOThe Spectator Index98%match2¢-100%
BREAKING: Trump announces strikes against Iran, says goal is to eliminate imminent threats.
NOCGTN Europe99%match2¢-100%
US strikes on Iran being carried out by air, sea, official says
NOunusual_whales99%match2¢-100%
Representative Thomas Massie has said the attack on Iran by Israel and the US today was “acts of war unauthorized by Congress”
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match18¢+456%
While the US attempts to negotiate, do not be mistaken they are continuing to finalise preparations for a large strike on Iran. [Quoting @WarMonitor3]
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Where does the news lean?
2YES4NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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