What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

OpenOutcomes21as of

Market pricing makes ↑ 4.25% the favorite at 26% across 21 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

↑ 4.5%Walter Bloomberg97%match98¢-11%
WELLS FARGO NOW SEES FED HIKES • • Wells Fargo Investment Institute now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 bps in 2026, reversing its previous forecast for no change. • • It also expects another 25-bp hike in 2027, taking the federal funds rate to 4.00%–4.25%. • • The shift marks a more hawkish outlook for U.S. monetary policy over the next 18 months.
WELLS FARGO NOW SEES FED HIKES • • Wells Fargo Investment Institute now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 bps in 2026, reversing its previous forecast for no change. • • It also expects another 25-bp hike in 2027, taking the federal funds rate to 4.00%–4.25%. • • The shift marks a more hawkish outlook for U.S. monetary policy over the next 18 months.
↑ 4.5%Walter Bloomberg96%match97¢-10%
FED COULD HOLD RATES INTO 2027 • • The Federal Reserve could keep rates unchanged through 2026 and H1 2027, according to CreditSights. • • U.S. inflation eased to 3.4% in July from 3.5%, while wage growth slowed and payrolls weakened. • • Labor-market uncertainty could keep the Fed on hold in September and beyond. • • Markets currently price in one 25-bp rate hike in 2026, according to LSEG.
↓ 0.75%Walter Bloomberg96%match96¢+1%
FED COULD HOLD RATES INTO 2027 • • The Federal Reserve could keep rates unchanged through 2026 and H1 2027, according to CreditSights. • • U.S. inflation eased to 3.4% in July from 3.5%, while wage growth slowed and payrolls weakened. • • Labor-market uncertainty could keep the Fed on hold in September and beyond. • • Markets currently price in one 25-bp rate hike in 2026, according to LSEG.
FED COULD HOLD RATES INTO 2027 • • The Federal Reserve could keep rates unchanged through 2026 and H1 2027, according to CreditSights. • • U.S. inflation eased to 3.4% in July from 3.5%, while wage growth slowed and payrolls weakened. • • Labor-market uncertainty could keep the Fed on hold in September and beyond. • • Markets currently price in one 25-bp rate hike in 2026, according to LSEG.
↓ 2.25%Walter Bloomberg96%match96¢+1%
FED COULD HOLD RATES INTO 2027 • • The Federal Reserve could keep rates unchanged through 2026 and H1 2027, according to CreditSights. • • U.S. inflation eased to 3.4% in July from 3.5%, while wage growth slowed and payrolls weakened. • • Labor-market uncertainty could keep the Fed on hold in September and beyond. • • Markets currently price in one 25-bp rate hike in 2026, according to LSEG.
FED COULD HOLD RATES INTO 2027 • • The Federal Reserve could keep rates unchanged through 2026 and H1 2027, according to CreditSights. • • U.S. inflation eased to 3.4% in July from 3.5%, while wage growth slowed and payrolls weakened. • • Labor-market uncertainty could keep the Fed on hold in September and beyond. • • Markets currently price in one 25-bp rate hike in 2026, according to LSEG.
FED COULD HOLD RATES INTO 2027 • • The Federal Reserve could keep rates unchanged through 2026 and H1 2027, according to CreditSights. • • U.S. inflation eased to 3.4% in July from 3.5%, while wage growth slowed and payrolls weakened. • • Labor-market uncertainty could keep the Fed on hold in September and beyond. • • Markets currently price in one 25-bp rate hike in 2026, according to LSEG.
↓ 3.25%foxnews97%match88¢+2%
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced that it will hold interest rates steady due to concerns about elevated inflation amid the war in Iran. • • Fed policymakers voted 9-3 to leave the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. • • The move follows the central bank's decision to hold rates steady in January, March, April and June following three successive 25-basis-point rate cuts in September, October and December to close out last year. • • Many Americans are now wondering if there will be a Fed rate cut before 2027. • • Our sponsor Kalshi’s prediction market shows a 16% chance. • •
TREASURY YIELDS SURGE AFTER FED HOLD • • U.S. 30-year Treasury yields climbed to a 19-year high of 5.24% after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged but offered little guidance on its next move. • • Markets scaled back expectations for a September rate hike, while analysts warned uncertainty over the Fed's inflation stance, combined with Middle East tensions and higher oil prices, could keep long-term yields elevated.
TREASURY YIELDS SURGE AFTER FED HOLD • • U.S. 30-year Treasury yields climbed to a 19-year high of 5.24% after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged but offered little guidance on its next move. • • Markets scaled back expectations for a September rate hike, while analysts warned uncertainty over the Fed's inflation stance, combined with Middle East tensions and higher oil prices, could keep long-term yields elevated.
↑ 5.0%Walter Bloomberg93%match96¢+2%
TREASURY YIELDS SURGE AFTER FED HOLD • • U.S. 30-year Treasury yields climbed to a 19-year high of 5.24% after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged but offered little guidance on its next move. • • Markets scaled back expectations for a September rate hike, while analysts warned uncertainty over the Fed's inflation stance, combined with Middle East tensions and higher oil prices, could keep long-term yields elevated.
↑ 4.5%chinesewsj94%match9¢+44%
Federal Reserve officials decided to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but three regional Fed presidents advocated for a rate hike. This divergence highlights growing internal pressure within the Fed to take action in the face of inflation that has exceeded its target for five consecutive years.
↑ 4.5%nikkei97%match9¢+44%
The Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, but three opposed it, calling for a rate hike. Chairman Warsh says, "We will take action if necessary." The federal funds rate, the benchmark for the policy interest rate, is 3.5-3.75%, and has remained unchanged for five consecutive meetings. The three who voted against it called for a 0.25% rate hike.
↓ 0.75%nikkei97%match98¢-1%
The Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, but three opposed it, calling for a rate hike. Chairman Warsh says, "We will take action if necessary." The federal funds rate, the benchmark for the policy interest rate, is 3.5-3.75%, and has remained unchanged for five consecutive meetings. The three who voted against it called for a 0.25% rate hike.
↓ 3.0%nikkei97%match94¢+4%
The Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, but three opposed it, calling for a rate hike. Chairman Warsh says, "We will take action if necessary." The federal funds rate, the benchmark for the policy interest rate, is 3.5-3.75%, and has remained unchanged for five consecutive meetings. The three who voted against it called for a 0.25% rate hike.
↑ 4.5%alarabytv92%match91¢-4%
The US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates within the 3.50% to 3.75% range amid questions about its ability to bring inflation back to 2%. @dimaizzedin
↓ 3.25%alarabytv92%match88¢+2%
The US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates within the 3.50% to 3.75% range amid questions about its ability to bring inflation back to 2%. @dimaizzedin
↑ 4.75%alarabytv92%match96¢
The US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates within the 3.50% to 3.75% range amid questions about its ability to bring inflation back to 2%. @dimaizzedin
↓ 0.75%alarabytv92%match98¢-1%
The US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates within the 3.50% to 3.75% range amid questions about its ability to bring inflation back to 2%. @dimaizzedin
↓ 2.75%alarabytv92%match98¢-1%
The US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates within the 3.50% to 3.75% range amid questions about its ability to bring inflation back to 2%. @dimaizzedin
↓ 3.0%alarabytv92%match94¢+4%
The US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates within the 3.50% to 3.75% range amid questions about its ability to bring inflation back to 2%. @dimaizzedin
↑ 4.5%foxbusiness95%match8¢+63%
The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, but the debate inside the central bank is heating up. • • The Fed is leaving its benchmark interest rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range as officials continue to wrestle with inflation that has remained above the central bank's 2% target for more than five years. • • Three Fed policymakers broke with the majority and argued for a quarter-point rate hike, signaling growing concern that inflation could prove more persistent than expected. It marks the second straight meeting where those officials have dissented. • • Officials point to higher energy prices tied to the conflict involving Iran, along with strong spending fueled by the AI boom, as factors that could keep inflation under pressure. • • While rates stay put for now, economists say the September meeting could become a much tougher decision if inflation doesn't continue to cool.
↓ 3.25%News93%match87¢+3%
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its key interest rate in the range of 3.5-3.75%.
↑ 4.5%News94%match92¢-5%
The US Federal Reserve is expected to keep its key interest rate at 3.5-3.75% per annum, according to the regulator.
↑ 4.75%News95%match96¢
The US Federal Reserve is expected to keep its key interest rate at 3.5-3.75% per annum, according to the regulator.
↓ 3.25%nytimes.com94%match87¢+3%
Live: The Fed held rates steady at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, a level that has been in place since January. Three officials voted against the move. Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed, Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed and Lorie Logan of the Dallas Fed dissented in favor of a quarter-point increase.
↑ 4.75%stockmktnewz94%match96¢
There is a 25% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed RAISE RATES by 0.25% today according to Polymarket traders • • There is a 75% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed keep rates unchanged today according to Polymarket traders
↑ 4.5%Walter Bloomberg91%match89¢-2%
BOFA: JULY FED RATE HIKE WOULD BE UNPRECEDENTED • • BofA expects the Fed to hold rates in July, despite markets pricing a small chance of a hike. • • The bank says a July increase would be unprecedented, noting the Fed has never hiked since 1994 with less than 60% odds priced in. • • BofA sees higher oil prices as the main inflation risk and remains bullish on the U.S. dollar.
↑ 4.75%stockmktnewz92%match95¢+1%
There is a 17% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed RAISE RATES on Wednesday according to Polymarket traders

What is this event about?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Related events