US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

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Market pricing makes October 31 the favorite at 99% across 22 tracked outcomes, as of .

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November 15iranintl91%match52¢
US President Donald Trump told reporters on Sunday, November 1, before attending an election rally in Iowa that he had a good conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about Iran. Previously, Axios reported, citing an Israeli source and an American source, that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants US President Donald Trump to attack Iran immediately after the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 12, but Trump wants to give negotiations time for now. According to the report, Trump and Netanyahu discussed the status of negotiations with the Islamic Republic and the timing of the resumption of military operations in a phone call on Saturday, November 2. The Israeli source described the call as “difficult” and the American source described it as “candid.”
November 22iranintl92%match43¢-5%
US President Donald Trump told reporters on Sunday, November 1, before attending an election rally in Iowa that he had a good conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about Iran. Previously, Axios reported, citing an Israeli source and an American source, that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants US President Donald Trump to attack Iran immediately after the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 12, but Trump wants to give negotiations time for now. According to the report, Trump and Netanyahu discussed the status of negotiations with the Islamic Republic and the timing of the resumption of military operations in a phone call on Saturday, November 2. The Israeli source described the call as “difficult” and the American source described it as “candid.”
November 30iranintl91%match37¢-5%
US President Donald Trump told reporters on Sunday, November 1, before attending an election rally in Iowa that he had a good conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about Iran. Previously, Axios reported, citing an Israeli source and an American source, that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants US President Donald Trump to attack Iran immediately after the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 12, but Trump wants to give negotiations time for now. According to the report, Trump and Netanyahu discussed the status of negotiations with the Islamic Republic and the timing of the resumption of military operations in a phone call on Saturday, November 2. The Israeli source described the call as “difficult” and the American source described it as “candid.”
November 15cbsnews.com91%match60¢-13%
Live: Iran says it's still reviewing U.S. response to 7-day ceasefire proposal and indirect talks continue
November 30sedaily.com92%match42¢-17%
[Trump Stocker] Putting the unfavorable Iran match on hold until November 3
October 15Russian state TV93%match93¢+8%
The United States is developing a plan to resume military operations against Iran, which calls for intensive strikes over three days, The New York Times reports, citing sources. According to the publication, the Pentagon is exploring options for attacks on Iran's missile and drone arsenals, energy facilities, and other military targets. A decision on resuming large-scale strikes has not yet been made. On October 8, Trump announced that the United States would not attack Iran until the midterm elections on November 3. He attributed this to productive talks with Tehran.
October 31Russian state TV92%match77¢+29%
The United States is developing a plan to resume military operations against Iran, which calls for intensive strikes over three days, The New York Times reports, citing sources. According to the publication, the Pentagon is exploring options for attacks on Iran's missile and drone arsenals, energy facilities, and other military targets. A decision on resuming large-scale strikes has not yet been made. On October 8, Trump announced that the United States would not attack Iran until the midterm elections on November 3. He attributed this to productive talks with Tehran.
November 15Iranian Media92%match59¢-12%
Trump's claim about "negotiating with Iran" also failed to calm the oil market US President Donald Trump's promise that the United States would not resume airstrikes against Iran before the midterm elections failed to prevent a sharp jump in oil prices on Thursday. Trump wrote on his social media: "We will not attack Iran at any time before the midterm elections scheduled to be held in the United States on November 3." He also claimed that the United States is holding "constructive talks with the Islamic Republic of Iran." On Thursday, the oil market did not react much to Trump's words after a short-term decline in prices. The price of Brent crude oil, which had reached nearly $106 per barrel at one point, closed at $104.28, up 4 percent at the end of trading. U.S. crude oil also ended the day up 3.6 percent at $91.49, after earlier reaching near $93. Other major energy prices were largely unaffected by Trump's message. European diesel futures jumped 6 percent, and heating oil, which is also used as a proxy for jet fuel prices, rose more than 5 percent. nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
November 30Iranian Media93%match42¢-17%
Trump's claim about "negotiating with Iran" also failed to calm the oil market US President Donald Trump's promise that the United States would not resume airstrikes against Iran before the midterm elections failed to prevent a sharp jump in oil prices on Thursday. Trump wrote on his social media: "We will not attack Iran at any time before the midterm elections scheduled to be held in the United States on November 3." He also claimed that the United States is holding "constructive talks with the Islamic Republic of Iran." On Thursday, the oil market did not react much to Trump's words after a short-term decline in prices. The price of Brent crude oil, which had reached nearly $106 per barrel at one point, closed at $104.28, up 4 percent at the end of trading. U.S. crude oil also ended the day up 3.6 percent at $91.49, after earlier reaching near $93. Other major energy prices were largely unaffected by Trump's message. European diesel futures jumped 6 percent, and heating oil, which is also used as a proxy for jet fuel prices, rose more than 5 percent. nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
November 15Ynet Reporter92%match56¢-7%
Earlier this evening, Trump declared that the United States would not attack Iran before the midterm elections on November 3, and noted that “productive” talks are taking place with Tehran. At the same time, according to the New York Times, the Pentagon has already formulated a plan for an intensive three-day campaign against Iran, which will include attacks on missile and drone systems, energy facilities and Revolutionary Guard sites. Trump has not yet approved the plan.
November 30Ynet Reporter92%match42¢-17%
Earlier this evening, Trump declared that the United States would not attack Iran before the midterm elections on November 3, and noted that “productive” talks are taking place with Tehran. At the same time, according to the New York Times, the Pentagon has already formulated a plan for an intensive three-day campaign against Iran, which will include attacks on missile and drone systems, energy facilities and Revolutionary Guard sites. Trump has not yet approved the plan.
Trump's claim about "negotiating with Iran" also failed to calm the oil market US President Donald Trump's promise that the United States would not resume airstrikes against Iran before the midterm elections failed to prevent a sharp jump in oil prices on Thursday. Trump wrote on his social media: "We will not attack Iran at any time before the midterm elections scheduled to be held in the United States on November 3." He also claimed that the United States is holding "constructive talks with the Islamic Republic of Iran." On Thursday, the oil market did not react much to Trump's words after a short-term decline in prices. The price of Brent crude oil, which had reached nearly $106 per barrel at one point, closed at $104.28, up 4 percent at the end of trading. U.S. crude oil also ended the day up 3.6 percent at $91.49; the index had earlier risen to near $93. Other major energy prices were also largely unaffected by Trump's message. Diesel futures in the European market jumped 6 percent and heating oil prices, which are also used as an indicator of jet fuel prices, rose more than 5 percent. Get the latest news: Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
Trump's claim about "negotiating with Iran" also failed to calm the oil market US President Donald Trump's promise that the United States would not resume airstrikes against Iran before the midterm elections failed to prevent a sharp jump in oil prices on Thursday. Trump wrote on his social media: "We will not attack Iran at any time before the midterm elections scheduled to be held in the United States on November 3." He also claimed that the United States is holding "constructive talks with the Islamic Republic of Iran." On Thursday, the oil market did not react much to Trump's words after a short-term decline in prices. The price of Brent crude oil, which had reached nearly $106 per barrel at one point, closed at $104.28, up 4 percent at the end of trading. U.S. crude oil also ended the day up 3.6 percent at $91.49; the index had earlier risen to near $93. Other major energy prices were also largely unaffected by Trump's message. Diesel futures in the European market jumped 6 percent and heating oil prices, which are also used as an indicator of jet fuel prices, rose more than 5 percent. Get the latest news: Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
November 30ibtimes.com91%match42¢-17%
Reports Claimed Trump Could Attack Iran Before The Midterms. The President Denied It.. • "We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd," Trump said in a social media publication.
November 15Ukrainian Media94%match60¢-13%
Trump: US military will not strike Iran before US midterm elections on November 3 The US will not attack Iran before the midterm elections on November 3, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday. "I want to make the following clear to everyone: Iran is in a very difficult situation economically and militarily. As long as the blockade remains in full force, as long as oil is transported in record volumes through the Strait of Hormuz (last night alone - 22 million barrels, and not a single barrel of oil was exported from Iran and not a single barrel was imported), we will not attack Iran until the end of the US midterm elections on November 3," he wrote on the Truth Social social network. ...
November 30Ukrainian Media94%match44¢-20%
Trump: US military will not strike Iran before US midterm elections on November 3 The US will not attack Iran before the midterm elections on November 3, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday. "I want to make the following clear to everyone: Iran is in a very difficult situation economically and militarily. As long as the blockade remains in full force, as long as oil is transported in record volumes through the Strait of Hormuz (last night alone - 22 million barrels, and not a single barrel of oil was exported from Iran and not a single barrel was imported), we will not attack Iran until the end of the US midterm elections on November 3," he wrote on the Truth Social social network. ...
October 15iranintl92%match95¢+5%
Israel's Channel 12 reported on Thursday, October 6, that senior American officers had told Eyal Zamir, the Israeli army chief of staff, earlier this week that the White House and the Pentagon had ordered them to prepare for a major attack on Iran within the next three weeks. According to the report, Zamir said that such an attack could delay the November 20 elections in Israel, and that Iran would respond with a large-scale missile attack on Israel. The report came as Donald Trump announced that the United States was in "constructive talks" with the Islamic Republic and would not attack Iran before the US midterm elections. A senior White House official told Channel 12 that the issue of Iran did not come up in Trump and Netanyahu's conversation yesterday, and that the two sides focused on the third anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attacks. The report added that it is unlikely that they did not discuss Iran, and that it is possible that the messages from Trump and his aides are another attempt to surprise Iran if the US decides to attack. Be.
November 15iranintl91%match40¢+20%
Israel's Channel 12 reported on Thursday, October 6, that senior American officers had told Eyal Zamir, the Israeli army chief of staff, earlier this week that the White House and the Pentagon had ordered them to prepare for a major attack on Iran within the next three weeks. According to the report, Zamir said that such an attack could delay the November 20 elections in Israel, and that Iran would respond with a large-scale missile attack on Israel. The report came as Donald Trump announced that the United States was in "constructive talks" with the Islamic Republic and would not attack Iran before the US midterm elections. A senior White House official told Channel 12 that the issue of Iran did not come up in Trump and Netanyahu's conversation yesterday, and that the two sides focused on the third anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attacks. The report added that it is unlikely that they did not discuss Iran, and that it is possible that the messages from Trump and his aides are another attempt to surprise Iran if the US decides to attack. Be.
Trump announces "productive" talks with Iran; attack ruled out until election Donald Trump announced the continuation of "productive" talks with Iran and at the same time announced that the United States will not attack Iran until the midterm elections on November 3. @ilnair
Trump announces "productive" talks with Iran; attack ruled out until election Donald Trump announced the continuation of "productive" talks with Iran and at the same time announced that the United States will not attack Iran until the midterm elections on November 3. @ilnair
November 15foxbusiness91%match60¢-13%
BREAKING: President Trump says the U.S. will not be attacking Iran again before the upcoming midterm elections. • • "We are having very productive discussions... Iran is in very bad condition, both Economically and Militarily." • • "With Oil flowing in Record Numbers of Barrels through the Hormuz Strait... we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd."
November 30foxbusiness92%match44¢-20%
BREAKING: President Trump says the U.S. will not be attacking Iran again before the upcoming midterm elections. • • "We are having very productive discussions... Iran is in very bad condition, both Economically and Militarily." • • "With Oil flowing in Record Numbers of Barrels through the Hormuz Strait... we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd."
November 30Russian Media94%match44¢-20%
The United States will not attack Iran before the midterm elections in November if oil supplies continue through the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump announced this on the social network TruthSocial. The American president noted that Washington is conducting "productive discussions" with Tehran. According to him, Iran is in "very bad" economic and military condition. "As long as the blockade remains in full force, record barrels of oil will continue to flow through the Strait of Hormuz , we will not attack Iran at any time before the midterm elections, which will take place in the United States on November 3," he wrote. RBK Channel on "Max"
November 30Russian Media92%match44¢-20%
The United States will not attack Iran until after the midterm congressional elections on November 3, Donald Trump said. The American president said Washington is holding "productive discussions" with Tehran. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
November 30Russian Media93%match44¢-20%
Donald Trump said the United States will not attack Iran until after the midterm congressional elections on November 3. Washington will, however, continue its blockade of Iran. Donald Trump also stated that Iran "will not acquire nuclear weapons." He said the United States is currently conducting "productive negotiations" with Tehran. Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
November 30Russian Media93%match44¢-20%
Donald Trump said the United States will not attack Iran until after the midterm congressional elections on November 3. Washington will, however, continue its blockade of Iran. Donald Trump also stated that Iran "will not acquire nuclear weapons." He said the United States is currently conducting "productive negotiations" with Tehran. Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
November 15skynewsarabia95%match61¢-15%
Trump: We will not attack Iran at any time before the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3. * Iran is in a very bad situation economically and militarily. * The embargo on Iran will remain in full force. * Oil flowed through the Strait of Hormuz in record quantities of 22 million barrels last night alone.
November 30skynewsarabia95%match43¢-19%
Trump: We will not attack Iran at any time before the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3. * Iran is in a very bad situation economically and militarily. * The embargo on Iran will remain in full force. * Oil flowed through the Strait of Hormuz in record quantities of 22 million barrels last night alone.
“we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd”
November 15Russian state TV93%match60¢-13%
The United States will not attack Iran until the midterm elections to the US Congress, which will take place on November 3, Trump promised. He stated that the United States is conducting productive discussions with the Islamic Republic. To stay up to date with the most important news: Website | MAX | Telegram

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

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