What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? ↓ 2.75%
Open$362Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
FED COULD HOLD RATES INTO 2027 • • The Federal Reserve could keep rates unchanged through 2026 and H1 2027, according to CreditSights. • • U.S. inflation eased to 3.4% in July from 3.5%, while wage growth slowed and payrolls weakened. • • Labor-market uncertainty could keep the Fed on hold in September and beyond. • • Markets currently price in one 25-bp rate hike in 2026, according to LSEG.
Fed unlikely to cut interest rates until 2027, Bank of America says
The US Federal Reserve: We have kept interest rates at their current level, which is between 3.5 and 3.75 percent.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, maintaining the upper bound of the target range at 3.75%, in line with market expectations and unchanged from the previous level.
YESLeading Report98%match51¢-94%
BREAKING: Mortgage rates fall below 6%, per CNBC.
YESThe Hill98%match52¢-94%
Mortgage rates drop to the lowest level since 2022
YESFirst Squawk98%match47¢-94%
FED’S HAMMACK SAYS IT’S IMPORTANT TO REACH 2% INFLATION BEFORE CHANGING RATES AGAIN.
YESFinancialJuice98%match38¢-92%
Fed's Williams: I expect inflation to move to 2.5% in 2026, 2% in 2027.
NOReuters98%match56¢+73%
Fade the Fed, global rates are heading higher
NOunusual_whales98%match59¢+64%
Federal officials have left their median outlook for the federal funds rate unchanged: 3.6% at the end of 2025, 3.4% in 2026, and 3.1% in both 2027 and 2028, with the longer-run rate still at 3.0%.
NOunusual_whales98%match59¢+64%
BREAKING: The Fed sees see unemployment reaching 4.4% in 2026, PCE inflation easing to 2.4%, and GDP growth picking up to 2.3%.
YESFinancialJuice99%match41¢-93%
Fed policymakers see end-2026 PCE inflation at 2.4% (vs. 2.6% prior); core at 2.5% (vs. 2.6%).
NOCGTN America99%match59¢+64%
FED OFFICIALS' MEDIAN VIEW OF FED FUNDS RATE AT END-2026 3.4% (PREV 3.4%)
NOFirst Squawk98%match59¢+64%
FED OFFICIALS’ LONG-RUN MEDIAN RATE VIEW HOLDS AT 3.0%; PROJECTIONS SIGNAL 25 BPS CUT IN 2026 AND 25 BPS CUT IN 2027.
NOCGTN America99%match59¢+64%
FED OFFICIALS' MEDIAN VIEW OF FED FUNDS RATE AT END-2027 3.1% (PREV 3.1%)
NOFirst Squawk98%match59¢+64%
FED OFFICIALS’ MEDIAN FED FUNDS RATE VIEW: 3.1% FOR END-2027 (UNCHANGED) AND 3.1% FOR END-2028 (UNCHANGED).
NOFirst Squawk98%match59¢+64%
FED OFFICIALS’ MEDIAN FED FUNDS RATE VIEW: 3.6% FOR END-2025 (UNCHANGED); 3.4% FOR END-2026 (UNCHANGED).
NOCGTN America99%match59¢+64%
FED OFFICIALS' MEDIAN VIEW OF FED FUNDS RATE AT END-2028 3.1% (PREV 3.1%)
NOCGTN America99%match59¢+64%
FED OFFICIALS' MEDIAN VIEW OF FED FUNDS RATE AT END-2025 3.6% (PREV 3.6%)
NOFinancialJuice99%match59¢+64%
Fed median projection shows rates at 3.1% by the end of 2028.
Where does the news lean?
8YES26NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
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