What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? ↓ 0.5%
Open$107Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOLeading Report98%match92¢+5%
BREAKING: Mortgage rates fall below 6%, per CNBC.
NOThe Hill98%match93¢+4%
Mortgage rates drop to the lowest level since 2022
YESFinancialJuice98%match13¢-77%
Fed's Goolsbee: Realistic rates can come down a fair amount.
YESFinancialJuice98%match13¢-77%
Fed's Waller: We can continue to bring the rate down; unclear how much support there is for that on the Fed.
NOFinancialJuice98%match87¢+11%
Fed's Waller: The Fed can steadily lower rates, no rush
NOFinancialJuice98%match89¢+9%
Fed's Williams: I expect inflation to move to 2.5% in 2026, 2% in 2027.
Where does the news lean?
3YES5NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
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