What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? ↓ 3.0%
Open$312Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The US Federal Reserve: We have kept interest rates at their current level, which is between 3.5 and 3.75 percent.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, maintaining the upper bound of the target range at 3.75%, in line with market expectations and unchanged from the previous level.
FED'S BOWMAN SAYS THEY STILL EXPECT TO LOWER INTEREST RATES THREE TIMES IN 2026.
Traders push out bets on Fed rate cut to April 2027, according to Rate-Future pricing.
NOThe New York Times98%match18¢+444%
Breaking News: U.S. mortgage rates fell below 6% for the first time in years, offering some hope for a frozen housing market.
NOCGTN America98%match18¢+444%
IMF'S GEORGIEVA: BRINGING DOWN THE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE TO 3.25% AND 3.5% CONSISTENT WITH U.S. ECONOMY RETURNING TO FULL EMPLOYMENT
YESLeading Report98%match82¢-98%
BREAKING: Mortgage rates fall below 6%, per CNBC.
NOFirst Squawk98%match17¢+476%
FED’S HAMMACK: THERE’S A RISK INFLATION COULD STICK AT 3% THIS YEAR, NEEDS TO COME DOWN
Where does the news lean?
6YES7NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
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