What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? ↑ 4.25%
Open$144Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 81% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES81¢
NO19¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, maintaining the upper bound of the target range at 3.75%, in line with market expectations and unchanged from the previous level.
The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, setting the upper bound at 3.75%, in line with market expectations of 3.75% and unchanged from the previous level of 3.75%. • •
NOFinancialJuice98%match91¢-79%
Fitch: Expect US Fed to cut rates twice in 1H26, taking fed funds rate (upper band) to 3.25%
Where does the news lean?
0YES4NO10neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
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