What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? ↓ 3.25%
Open$81Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 10% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES10¢
NO91¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced that it will hold interest rates steady due to concerns about elevated inflation amid the war in Iran. • • Fed policymakers voted 9-3 to leave the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. • • The move follows the central bank's decision to hold rates steady in January, March, April and June following three successive 25-basis-point rate cuts in September, October and December to close out last year. • • Many Americans are now wondering if there will be a Fed rate cut before 2027. • • Our sponsor Kalshi’s prediction market shows a 16% chance. • •
FED'S BOWMAN SAYS THEY STILL EXPECT TO LOWER INTEREST RATES THREE TIMES IN 2026.
YESCGTN America98%match93¢-89%
IMF'S GEORGIEVA: BRINGING DOWN THE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE TO 3.25% AND 3.5% CONSISTENT WITH U.S. ECONOMY RETURNING TO FULL EMPLOYMENT
YESFinancialJuice98%match89¢-89%
Fed's Williams: I expect inflation to move to 2.5% in 2026, 2% in 2027.
Where does the news lean?
3YES4NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
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