Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Open39as of
Market pricing makes Rick Rieder the favorite at 8% across 39 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Kevin Warsh100%
Ron Paul0%
All further outcomes (9 more):
Individual S · Individual U · Individual V · Individual W · Individual X · Individual Y · Individual Z · No one nominated before 2027 · Other
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Sen. Kennedy to Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman: "How could you possibly allow a bank to have the option…to debank someone…because you didn't like their politics? And you can say the same thing about gun manufacturers, or oil and gas."
RT @PredMTrader: Kevin Warsh nomination odds down to 93% Tied for the lowest level since he was announced
Trump: How's the economy doing, Scott? Good? Scott Bessent: Doing great, sir.
Trump gives Howard Lutnick a shout out during his speech: He’s a very very successful guy. You have some big things happening
Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh has several paths toward reducing the central bank’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet but the process will be costly and lengthy, Wall Street strategists say.
Trump on Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh: "If our new head of the Fed, who I think is going to be great, and he's a really high-quality person, but if he does the job that he's capable, we can grow at 15%. I think more than that."
Trump on Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh: "If our new head of the Fed, who I think is going to be great, and he's a really high-quality person, but if he does the job that he's capable, we can grow at 15%. I think more than that."
John Hurley, the Trump administration’s top sanctions official, is set to leave his post after friction with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, according to people familiar with the matter.
Lutnick, to Trump: You are fixing everything with your policies. You have changed America and created the golden age
Fed's Miran: I would be happy to remain at the Fed if nominated.
Fed's Miran: I would be happy to remain at the Fed if nominated.
.@pulte on the housing market: "We’re headed in the right direction. We still have work to do, but with the slam dunk economic numbers, and everything else that we’re doing in the housing market, I'm very confident that we're going to get the American Dream back."
Rep. Stansbury on Lutnick and Epstein: "It is very clear that Howard Lutnick lied to the public about the nature of his relationship… It's time for him to stand down.”
Trump has said rate cuts would solve US debt
Which Kevin is going to show up? Trump wants a low-rates guy at the Fed but Kevin Warsh, his pick to run the central bank, is known as an inflation hawk. Hear more on Reuters Econ World podcast
President Trump just LEVELED Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He told Larry Kudlow that Powell’s interest rate policies are so bad that rates should be TWO POINTS lower than they are right now. Then he compared Powell’s Fed construction project to hotels he’s built for a fraction of… [Quoting @overton_news]
> President Trump says something is deeply broken when good economic news makes the stock market fall and bad news makes it rise. Trump said it is driven by interest-rate manipulation instead of real economic strength. TRUMP: “Sometimes GREAT news is announced, and the market…
President Trump just LEVELED Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He told Larry Kudlow that Powell’s interest rate policies are so bad that rates should be TWO POINTS lower than they are right now. Then he compared Powell’s Fed construction project to hotels he’s built for a fraction of… [Quoting @overton_news]
> President Trump says something is deeply broken when good economic news makes the stock market fall and bad news makes it rise. Trump said it is driven by interest-rate manipulation instead of real economic strength. TRUMP: “Sometimes GREAT news is announced, and the market…
TRUMP: "If our new head of the Fed, who I think is going to be great... if he does the job that he's capable of, we can grow at 15%... when we were starting as a country, we were growing... this country can do it."
TRUMP: "If our new head of the Fed, who I think is going to be great... if he does the job that he's capable of, we can grow at 15%... when we were starting as a country, we were growing... this country can do it."
TRUMP: "If our new head of the Fed, who I think is going to be great... if he does the job that he's capable of, we can grow at 15%... when we were starting as a country, we were growing... this country can do it."
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick denied close ties to Jeffrey Epstein during a Senate hearing after bipartisan calls for his resignation over new revelations in DOJ files
The odds of Howard Lutnick leaving the Trump administration are surging on Polymarket.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed on Tuesday that he and his family visited the private island of the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein in 2012
Regime change at the Fed? Kevin Warsh wants to overhaul the central bank but can he deliver? Hear all about Trump's pick to lead the Fed on this week's Reuters Econ World podcast
Lutnick claims no relationship with Epstein amid calls to resign
Trump 'fully supports' commerce chief Lutnick despite Epstein ties: White House
Trump 'fully supports' commerce chief Lutnick despite Epstein ties: White House
WHITE HOUSE: TRUMP SUPPORTS LUTNICK
[Replying to @unusual_whales] @unusual_whales 52% chance Lutnick leaves the administration this year. > BREAKING: Howard Lutnick now admits he has actually gone to Epstein island. "I did have lunch with him as I was on a boat going across on a family vacation. My wife was with me as were my 4 children and nannies. I had another couple with their children. And we had lunch on the…
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick minimized his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein Tuesday but acknowledged visiting him at his private island in 2012 after Epstein was a convicted sex offender
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.