Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?Judy Shelton
ResolvedOutcome: No$127.7Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
14 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NOBloomberg98%match97¢+3%
President Donald Trump said his pick to lead the Federal Reserve can stoke the economy to grow at a rate of 15%
YESJoe Weisenthal99%match2¢-100%
Trump says that 'in theory' the Fed should be independent, but that in practice the Chairman should listen to him, because he knows the economy better than almost anyone else
NOPOLITICO99%match98¢+2%
Trump’s Fed chair pick — Kevin Warsh — has been vocal about Fed independence. Our @Jack_Blanchard_ and @dashaburns discuss why Trump picked someone unlikely to do his bidding and the role the Treasury secretary played on today’s #PlaybookPod:
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match99¢+1%
RICK RIEDER EMERGES AS TOP CONTENDER FOR FED CHAIR BlackRock executive Rick Rieder has surged as a leading candidate to replace Fed Chair Jay Powell, with his odds on Kalshi jumping from 3% to 37%. President Trump is expected to announce his pick soon and is widely seen as… [Quoting @DeItaone]
> BLACKROCK'S RICK RIEDER SURGES IN FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR RACE - FT
NOCNBC99%match99¢+1%
Warsh sprints ahead in Fed chair race following Trump comments on Hassett, prediction markets show
NOPolymarket98%match97¢+3%
Trump’s Fed Chair pick could reshape global markets for years. HASSETT: NEC director and longtime Trump ally. Facing pushback that he’s too close to the president and could unsettle bond markets. WARSH: Former Fed Governor with deep Wall Street credibility, viewed as safer and…
NOFirst Squawk98%match100¢
US SEC HASSETT: TRUMP SEEKING DATA-DEPENDENT FED CHAIR WHO CAN MAKE INDEPENDENT JUDGEMENTS
NOOverton98%match100¢
RT @Kalshi: BREAKING: Kevin Warsh odds to become Fed Chair skyrocket to 41% He’s known for:
• Pushing for faster rate cuts
• Alignment wi…
NOStocktwits98%match100¢
Warsh and Hassett top Trump’s shortlist for Fed chair - the latter with a commanding lead on @Polymarket at 62% [Quoting @Stocktwits]
>
NOFinancialJuice99%match100¢
Trump: Kevin Warsh at top of Fed chair candidate list - CNBC.
NOFinancialJuice99%match100¢
Trump comments on the Fed chair selection process: I am meeting with Warsh today.
NOFirst Squawk98%match100¢
HASSETT: PRESIDENT TO DECIDE FED CHAIR IN 1–2 WEEKS; SAYS HE’S HONORED TO BE ON THE CANDIDATE LIST — FOX NEWS.
NOFirst Squawk99%match100¢
Trump to pit Hassett against trio of Fed chair finalists-FT
YESRapid Response 4798%match0¢
"You’re going to pick a new Fed chair soon. Is it a litmus test that the new chair lower interest rates immediately?" @POTUS: "Yes."
Where does the news lean?
2YES12NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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