Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?Christopher Waller
ResolvedOutcome: No$29.2Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
37 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NOCNBC99%match100¢
Trump would decide whether to investigate Fed pick Warsh over refusal to cut rates: Bessent
NOPOLITICO99%match100¢
Trump’s Fed chair pick — Kevin Warsh — has been vocal about Fed independence. Our @Jack_Blanchard_ and @dashaburns discuss why Trump picked someone unlikely to do his bidding and the role the Treasury secretary played on today’s #PlaybookPod:
NORapid Response 4799%match100¢
[Replying to @RapidResponse47] Wide Acclaim for President Trump’s Nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair > .@PressSec: "President Trump has appointed Kevin Warsh, who is a highly qualified and distinguished economist with a very exceptional résumé, and the White House is going to work with the Senate to quickly confirm him — because we need a new Chairman of the Fed."
YESBloomberg99%match17¢-100%
A dissent by Governor Christopher Waller could be his attempt to stay in the race for the top Fed job
YESBloomberg99%match17¢-100%
Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s dovish dissent should ingratiate him with President Donald Trump. Sadly, there will be a reputational price to pay, @jonathanjlevin says (via @opinion)
YESBloomberg99%match9¢-100%
@keds_economist @JonathanJLevin “We know President Trump really wants to put a cutter in this job,” @JonathanJLevin says, “Waller is out there identifying himself as a cutter … and one thing that this tells us, is that he’s still in the mix [for Fed Chair].”
NOAxios99%match91¢+10%
BlackRock's Rieder takes the lead in race for Trump's Fed chair pick
NOzerohedge99%match90¢+11%
BREAKING: Blackrock CIO, Rick Reider, is now the frontrunner to be nominated as Fed Chair.
NOPolymarket99%match90¢+11%
BREAKING: Blackrock CIO, Rick Reider, is now the frontrunner to be nominated as Fed Chair.
NOJoe Weisenthal98%match88¢+14%
NEW: Blackrock's Rick Reider emerging as top contender for Fed Chair, thanks to his Wall Street bona fides, Davos feedback and Trump's sense that he isn't an institutionalist. W/@nancook & @SalehaMohsin (gift link):
NOBloomberg99%match87¢+15%
Rick Rieder’s Wall Street ties and openness to changes at the Fed have bolstered his candidacy for the central bank's top job
NOCNBC99%match82¢+22%
Warsh sprints ahead in Fed chair race following Trump comments on Hassett, prediction markets show
NOzerohedge99%match82¢+22%
[Replying to @zerohedge] Source: > Warsh now clear favorite for next Fed chair on Polymarket; Hassett tumbles below Waller
NOzerohedge99%match82¢+22%
Warsh now clear favorite for next Fed chair on Polymarket; Hassett tumbles below Waller [Quoting @zerohedge]
>
YESBloomberg99%match16¢-100%
President Trump said he was interviewing “three or four” candidates for Federal Reserve chair and expected to have a decision pretty quickly
YES*Walter Bloomberg98%match12¢-100%
TRUMP ON FEDEAL RESERVE INTERVIEWS: MET WALLER YESTERDAY, HE IS GREAT
YESCGTN America98%match12¢-100%
TRUMP ON FEDEAL RESERVE INTERVIEWS: MET WALLER YESTERDAY, HE IS GREAT
YESFinancialJuice99%match12¢-100%
Trump on Fed interviews: I met Waller yesterday, he is great.
YESFirst Squawk98%match12¢-100%
TRUMP: I THINK CHRIS WALLER IS GREAT
YESzerohedge99%match23¢-100%
Trial balloon is over Bessent Says Any Concern About Kevin Hassett at Fed Is ‘Absurd’ [Quoting @zerohedge]
> TRUMP SET TO INTERVIEW FED'S CHRISTOPHER WALLER FOR CHAIR: WSJ Bessent is smart, just looking at market reactions to trial balloons
NOPolymarket99%match79¢+27%
BREAKING: Kevin Warsh likely out of the running for Fed Chair. Kevin Hassett is now the clear favorite, with Christopher Waller now trailing in 2nd place.
YESBloomberg99%match21¢-100%
Treasuries pared declines after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who’s under consideration to become chair of the central bank, reiterated his dovish views on US interest rates
YESCNBC99%match17¢-100%
Fed chair candidate Waller says he will 'absolutely' emphasize importance of the central bank's independence to Trump
YESCNBC99%match17¢-100%
Watch Fed Governor Christopher Waller speak on interest rates and the race to succeed Powell
NOPolymarket99%match95¢+5%
RT @PolymarketMoney: President Trump says he’s leaning toward either Warsh or Hassett to lead the Fed He also said the next Fed chair shou…
NOOverton98%match95¢+5%
RT @Kalshi: BREAKING: Kevin Warsh odds to become Fed Chair skyrocket to 41% He’s known for:
• Pushing for faster rate cuts
• Alignment wi…
NOStocktwits98%match95¢+5%
Warsh and Hassett top Trump’s shortlist for Fed chair - the latter with a commanding lead on @Polymarket at 62% [Quoting @Stocktwits]
>
NOFinancialJuice99%match95¢+5%
Trump: Kevin Warsh at top of Fed chair candidate list - CNBC.
NOFinancialJuice99%match95¢+5%
Trump: Kevin Warsh at top of Fed chair candidate list - CNBC.
NOFirst Squawk98%match95¢+5%
TRUMP SAYS KEVIN WARSH AT TOP OF FED CHAIR CANDIDATE LIST: CNBC
NOunusual_whales98%match95¢+5%
[Replying to @unusual_whales] Donald Trump added: We should have the lowest rate in the world, per WSJ, saying rates should be at 1% “or lower than that” next year. To get all news realtime, checkout for numerous news feeds, stock screeners, and more. > JUST IN: US President Donald Trump has said he is leaning toward Warsh or Hassett to lead the Fed, and the next Fed chair should consult with him on where to set interest rates per the WSJ
NOThe Wall Street Journal99%match95¢+5%
President Trump tells WSJ he is leaning toward either Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett to lead the Fed, and that the next chair should consult with him on interest rates
NOCGTN America98%match95¢+5%
TRUMP SAYS HE IS LEANING TOWARD WARSH OR HASSETT TO LEAD THE FED- WSJ
NOFinancialJuice99%match95¢+5%
Trump: I am leaning toward Warsh or Hassett to lead the Fed - WSJ.
NORapid Response 4798%match97¢+3%
"You’re going to pick a new Fed chair soon. Is it a litmus test that the new chair lower interest rates immediately?" @POTUS: "Yes."
YESFinancialJuice99%match3¢-100%
WH Sr. Adviser Hassett lauding Fed's Waller, Fed's Bowman, and Warsh: Trump has a tough pick.
YESFinancialJuice99%match3¢-100%
WH Sr. Adviser Hassett lauding Fed's Waller, Fed's Bowman, Warsh: Trump has tough pick
Where does the news lean?
21YES36NO24neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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