Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

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Market pricing makes Dan Scavino the favorite at 28% across 21 tracked outcomes, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

Scott Bessentfaststocknewss95%match94¢+1%
TRUMP: BESSENT WILL NOT BE "SUPER INTELLIGENCE" CZAR • • President Trump says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent does not want the role and will remain at Treasury. • • "He's doing such a great job at Treasury, and that's where I want to keep him!" • • Trump called reports that Bessent would take the role "Fake News."
Scott BessentFox Reporter93%match94¢+1%
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will not be going to be Super Intelligence Czar, Trump says
Scott BessentReuters92%match94¢+1%
Trump: Scott Bessent Will Not Be Going to Be Super Intelligence (Si) Czar.
Marco RubioCNN Reporter92%match93¢+2%
President Trump has signed a commission making Marco Rubio the National Security Advisor, a White House official tells me. • • Rubio who has been in an acting role since May 2025- is now officially Secretary of State and NSA.
A White House official confirms to me @NewsNation that President Trump signed a commission making Marco Rubio the National Security Advisor. • • Rubio was previously serving in an acting capacity and now this makes his dual role as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor official.
Trump confirms Marco Rubio as National Security Advisor in addition to the State Department, while focusing on the role of special envoys, which was usually the responsibility of the Secretary of State, in resolving international conflicts such as Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and African conflicts, which are now distributed among envoys on whom Trump relies.
Marco RubioMS NOW93%match92¢+3%
President Donald Trump recently signed a commission that permanently makes Marco Rubio the National Security Adviser according to a U.S. official speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss staffing moves. • • The move formalizes Rubio’s dual assignment as Secretary of State and National Security Adviser.
David SacksWired Reporter91%match22¢-64%
NEW: Trump says he will soon appoint a new AI czar to lead an “AI Force” • • Trump’s former AI czar David Sacks left the White House earlier this year but has continued to have outsized influence with Trump over AI policy
Susie Wileslefigaro.fr92%match76¢+8%
Susie Wiles, Trump's chief of staff, announces she is "cured" of her cancer
Susie Wilestheguardian.com91%match76¢+8%
Live: Susie Wiles , the White House chief of staff, announced that she is “cancer free”, exactly six months after Donald Trump revealed in March that she had been dia
Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff, says she is cancer-free
Susie Wilesfoxbusiness93%match76¢+8%
BREAKING: White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles announces that she is now cancer-free. • • Wiles says that recent pathology results from a visit to the Mayo Clinic came back clear. • • She expressed gratitude to her family, friends, medical team and everyone who kept her in their prayers, and also thanked President Trump for his continued support throughout her treatment.
Susie Wilesfoxnews93%match76¢+8%
BREAKING: White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles announces that she is now cancer-free. • • Wiles says that recent pathology results from a visit to the Mayo Clinic came back clear. • • She expressed gratitude to her family, friends, medical team and everyone who kept her in their prayers, and also thanked President Trump for his continued support throughout her treatment.
Pete HegsethRussian Media92%match23¢-9%
The US House of Representatives is considering removing Pete Hegseth – a resolution to that effect will be voted on this week. The main claims are violation of the "oath to uphold the Constitution of the United States," "duty to enforce the laws, especially with respect to military operations," and abuse of power. A vote on the resolution is expected to take place within two days. It is still unclear whether enough Republicans will support the initiative to really create problems for Hegseth, writes The Hill. More IZ RU news in MAX
David SacksPolitico Reporter97%match21¢-62%
“David Sacks. It’s all coming from him,” a senior WH official tells me for @playbookdc. • • Sacks may have left the White House in March, but he remains one of Trump’s most influential voices on AI, helping shape the president’s response to the growing backlash and staying in frequent contact by phone and text. • • I’ll be interviewing Sacks at the @POLITICOLive Decoded Summit tomorrow.
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gets a standing ovation after President Trump recognizes him from the stage at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas • • Trump points out Kennedy alongside Dr. Mehmet Oz while touting his administration's prescription drug pricing push, saying Americans spent decades paying the highest prices in the world and that his most-favored-nation agreements are changing that. • • Kennedy rises and acknowledges the applause as Trump puts the MAHA movement in the spotlight.
Pete Hegsethalarabiya93%match82¢-4%
US President Donald Trump on the possibility of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth running for president: "He's doing a great job, but it's too early, and we have to get through the midterm elections first."
Pete Hegsethfoxnews95%match82¢-4%
NEW: President Trump weighs in on recent speculation that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is considering a potential 2028 presidential run. • • "I think he's doing a fantastic job, but it's very early to talk about that. We have to get through the midterms first." • • "I'll bet there's a lot of people considering it that you don't know about."
Pete Hegseththeguardian.com91%match78¢+1%
Live: Pete Hegseth , the former Fox News weekend host now overseeing the US quagmire in Iran as Donald Trump ’s “central casting” defense secretary, has denied that h
Amid criticism against Markwayne Mullin from conservatives, I asked Stephen Miller whether @POTUS still has confidence in his DHS secretary and whether he agrees with Mullin’s comments about immigration addressing labor shortages. • • "Well, I never heard that statement. All I know is that President Trump has been thrilled with the fact that we've had record deportations under Markwayne Mullin."
Kristi NoemRussian Media92%match24¢+17%
FWD from IZ.RU • IMPORTANT: White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt will leave her post at the end of August to spend more time with her family. In her 1.5 years under Trump, she has become the youngest (28 years old) and most trusted aide, and is known for her harsh rhetoric toward the media. Who is Caroline Levitt, why did she decide to leave her post, and who might be her successor—in Izvestia's report. White House Press Secretary Resigns: Levitt will leave her post at the end of August to spend more time with her family. Donald Trump announced her departure, calling her one of his most trusted aides and the best press secretary in the administration's history. A successor has not yet been named, and she will remain an outside adviser to Trump and an influential Republican figure. Levitt took up the post at age 28, becoming the youngest press secretary in White House history. She described her decision to leave as "bittersweet." It came after the birth of her second child in May 2026, when she realized she couldn't balance one of the most demanding jobs with full-time parenting. Political analysts disagree on their assessments: some attribute the resignation to a desire to avoid potential investigations by Democrats should they win the midterm elections, while others believe the reason is purely personal, given the recent birth of a child and the high stress of being press secretary. Who's next? Levitt's departure is part of a series of personnel changes within Trump's team. In recent months, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (due to her husband's illness) and National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent (due to her disagreement with the Iran operation) have resigned, as have Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi. Political scientist Malek Dudakov suggests that Chief of Staff Susie Wiles could be next to leave, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth risks becoming a scapegoat for the Iran fiasco. Expert Andrei Kuzmak, on the other hand, believes that further resignations won't save the Democrats from investigations if they win the election, and that leaving their posts now is pointless—people leave primarily for ideological reasons, like Joe Kent. Kuzmak also notes that Hegseth is too dependent on the influential political forces behind Trump, and his voluntary departure is unlikely, since he “won’t be allowed to simply leave.” Who can replace Levitt? The name of the new press secretary has not yet been announced, but possible candidates include Principal Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly, Pentagon Press Secretary Kingsley Wilson and White House Communications Director Steven Chun. The final decision remains with Trump, and none of the candidates have been officially approved yet, so it is premature to talk about the future press secretary. What is Caroline Levitt famous for? Her career began with an internship at the White House during Trump's first term, then she worked as an assistant to the press secretary and communications director for Congresswoman Elise Stefanik. In 2022, she ran for the House of Representatives but lost, after which she became the national press secretary for the Trump campaign in 2024. As press secretary, Levitt oversaw the administration's public communications, holding regular briefings and staunchly defending Trump's policies, often clashing with reporters. Subscribe to IMPORTANT | More news here
Karoline Leavitt is a force of nature. She has worked tirelessly and effectively to communicate and advance President Trump’s commonsense agenda—always ensuring the American people are informed and provided the transparency they deserve. • • Karoline, you will be greatly missed. My heartfelt thanks for your incredible work, dedication, and service. Now go smother those two little ones with love!
Karoline Leavittfoxnews97%match100¢
Secretary of State Marco Rubio sends a farewell message to Karoline Leavitt ahead of her departure from the Trump administration to focus on her young children and family. • • Rubio said Leavitt played a “pivotal role” in the administration’s “historic accomplishments."<b... Secretary of State Marco Rubio sends a farewell message to Karoline Leavitt ahead of her departure from the Trump administration to focus on her young children and family. • • Rubio said Leavitt played a “pivotal role” in the administration’s “historic accomplishments." • • "Wishing her and her family nothing but the best in their next chapter!"
RT @realDonaldTrumpOur wonderful White House Press Secretary, and one of my most trusted aides, Karoline Leavitt, will be departing her role at the end of the month so she can spend more time with her beautiful young children and family, a decision I totally understand and respect! Karoline will now be one of my top outside advisors, and an influential voice within the Republican Party, as we work to defy History, and conclusively win the Midterm Elections. Karoline has been a real leader in the White House, and has done a phenomenal job fighting for Justice, Liberty, and Freedom, since 2018, including our Historic Re-Election Campaign of 2024. Karoline has been one of the best White House Press Secretaries in the History of the Office. Thank you, Karoline, for a job well done! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Karoline Leavittdpa.com96%match100¢
Trump needs a new mouthpiece: Karoline Leavitt is leaving.
Karoline Leavitt, White House press secretary and staunch Trump supporter, will be leaving her post.
Karoline Leavittafp97%match100¢
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, who earned a reputation for acid putdowns of journalists, is to step down, President Donald Trump announced Wednesday adding she would remain a senior advisor.
Karoline Leavitt to leave White House as Donald Trump issues shock statement
Karoline Leavitt has one of the hardest jobs in the Administration — dealing with the relentless attacks from the fake news media. She did the job with grace, wit and a smile on her face. She’s been one of the most effective voices in articulating and defending the President’s agenda, and I’m incredibly grateful to her. I’ve had the opportunity to get to know Karoline over the past few years, and I know how difficult yet rewarding a constant job like this can be for a young parent. We’re sad to see her go, but I know she’ll continue to do great things.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will leave her post "at the end of the month"

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.