Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?Kristi Noem
Open$96Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 25% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES25¢
NO76¢
as of
What moved the odds?
12 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, who is out of the country this week for a multi-country trip in Latin America, calls her time as secretary an "honor and a privilege." She was reassigned by Trump to serve as special envoy for the Shield of the Americas. •
SCOOPLET: DHS Secretary Kristi Noem is bringing 10 staffers of hers from DHS over to the State Department, who will report to her in her new role as special envoy for The Shield of the Americas – Western Hemisphere, an admin. official told me. List
SCOOP: Two companies run by veteran political operatives with ties to Trump raked in at least $23 million (!) in commissions for their role in the DHS ad campaign that helped lead to Kristi Noem’s ouster, per an internal DHS memo I reviewed and 3 sources.
Why was former DHS head Kristi Noem replaced?
Fired DHS head Kristi Noem pushed to cut FEMA staff by 50%, give states bigger disaster role: docs
NOLeading Report99%match44¢+70%
BREAKING: President Trump says DHS Sec. Kristi Noem is not going anywhere.
NOAcyn99%match41¢+83%
Reporter: Is Kristi Noem going to step down? Trump: No
YESLeading Report99%match59¢-58%
BREAKING: 64% chance Kristi Noem leaves the Trump admin before 2027.
YESLeading Report99%match59¢-58%
BREAKING: 64% chance Kristi Noem leaves the Trump admin before 2027.
YESPolymarket99%match61¢-59%
[Replying to @NewsWire_US] @NewsWire_US 61% chance Noem leaves the administration this year. > DHS SECRETARY KRISTI NOEM AND CLOSE ADVISER COREY LEWANDOWSKI AT RISK OF LOSING THEIR JOBS: THE ATLANTIC
YESPOLITICO98%match61¢-59%
More Hill Democrats want Kristi Noem out as DHS secretary
NOCGTN Europe99%match39¢+92%
White House: Trump still has confidence and trust in Kristi Noem
Where does the news lean?
14YES5NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
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