Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?Howard Lutnick
Open$93Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 30% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES30¢
NO70¢
as of
What moved the odds?
19 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Folks coming my way to defend and praise Howard Lutnick, including @JasonMiller: • “Anyone pushing a ‘Cabinet change’ story is either a loser who wants the job or a friend of the loser who wants the job.” • • And a Senior WH Official tells me: • “I haven’t heard anyone suggest there’s been any change at Commerce. Everyone is thrilled with the job Howard has done — on trade deals, pharmaceuticals, Japan, tariffs, all of it....He’s also taken a hard line on Canada from day one, which POTUS appreciates."
NOunusual_whales98%match64¢+9%
Lutnick, to Trump: You are fixing everything with your policies. You have changed America and created the golden age
YESBreaking91198%match44¢-32%
Rep. Stansbury on Lutnick and Epstein: "It is very clear that Howard Lutnick lied to the public about the nature of his relationship… It's time for him to stand down.”
YESReuters98%match49¢-39%
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick denied close ties to Jeffrey Epstein during a Senate hearing after bipartisan calls for his resignation over new revelations in DOJ files
YESTIME98%match52¢-42%
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed on Tuesday that he and his family visited the private island of the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein in 2012
YESReuters98%match52¢-42%
Lutnick claims no relationship with Epstein amid calls to resign
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match48¢+46%
Trump 'fully supports' commerce chief Lutnick despite Epstein ties: White House
NOCGTN America98%match48¢+46%
Trump 'fully supports' commerce chief Lutnick despite Epstein ties: White House
NOCGTN America98%match48¢+46%
WHITE HOUSE: TRUMP SUPPORTS LUTNICK
YESThe Wall Street Journal98%match53¢-43%
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he visited Jeffrey Epstein’s private island in 2012 with his wife and children, years after Lutnick said he had cut off ties with the convicted sex offender
YESBreaking91199%match53¢-43%
BREAKING: Secretary Lutnick projected to leave Trump admin, after Epstein Island revelation contradicting his previous testimony. [Quoting @Polymarket]
> BREAKING: Secretary Lutnick projected to leave Trump admin, after Epstein Island revelation contradicting his previous testimony.
YESBloomberg98%match42¢-29%
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick minimized his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein Tuesday even as he acknowledged visiting the disgraced financier at his private island in 2012 after Epstein was a convicted sex offender.
YESPolymarket98%match42¢-29%
BREAKING: Secretary Lutnick projected to leave Trump admin, after Epstein Island revelation contradicting his previous testimony. [Quoting @Polymarket]
> BREAKING: U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirms he visited Epstein Island.
YESCNBC98%match42¢-29%
Trump Commerce Sec. Lutnick admits visiting Epstein island during family vacation
NOBreaking91198%match58¢+21%
Howard Lutnick: "Under the Biden administration, Louisiana was tasked to spend more than $1.3B to do exactly what it's doing now for under $500M. That means in Louisiana alone, the American taxpayers saved more than $800M, delivering better economic results, all while advancing…
YESPOLITICO98%match54¢-44%
Howard Lutnick faces bipartisan calls to resign over latest Epstein revelations
YESCNBC98%match54¢-44%
Three Congress members called on Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to resign amid revelations that his business and personal dealings with deceased sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein were more extensive than previously known.
YESunusual_whales98%match53¢-43%
"U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Jeffrey Epstein were in business together, Epstein files show," per CBS
YESCNBC98%match48¢-37%
Epstein files: Republican lawmaker Massie calls for Trump Commerce chief Lutnick to resign
Where does the news lean?
25YES8NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
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