Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?Pete Hegseth
Open$115Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 17% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES17¢
NO84¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
TRUMP REAFFIRMS SUPPORT FOR HEGSETH • • President Trump dismissed reports questioning Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, calling them "completely false" and reaffirming his full confidence. • • He praised Hegseth's leadership, citing stronger military recruitment, the removal of DEI initiatives, and recent U.S. operations involving Venezuela and Iran as successes. • • Trump also accused The Washington Post of spreading false reports and described its coverage as "treasonous."
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth forces out Army’s top officer
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announces a new policy allowing troops to carry personal firearms on bases for protection.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth forces out Army's top officer
NOAcyn98%match78¢+6%
Trump: Pete Hegseth—turned out to be absolutely fantastic at what he does, and you know what he does.
NOThe Economist98%match59¢+41%
A recent anti-globalist speech from Pete Hegseth, America’s war secretary, and Donald Trump’s National Security Strategy offer the clearest summary yet of ‘America First’ foreign policy
YESReuters98%match47¢-64%
@idreesali114 tells Reuters World News ‘it's a key moment for Pete Hegseth, and people are watching closely whether President Trump … still has confidence in him,’ as questions mount over the legality of the Pentagon’s strikes on suspected drug boats
Where does the news lean?
3YES22NO23neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 74% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
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