Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?Kash Patel
Open$302Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 22% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES22¢
NO79¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
FBI Director Kash Patel will be in Iowa on Monday for a law enforcement leadership discussion, two Iowa officials familiar with the event told @CBSNews. • @FBIDirectorKash and Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird are scheduled to meet with police chiefs, county attorneys and county sheriffs.
Kash Patel firing is a matter of time, report claims
BREAKING: FBI Director Kash Patel is expected to be fired from the Trump administration, a WH official tells POLITICO.
Kash Patel taunts Swalwell with FBI sit-down as resignation fallout grows • • #FoxNews @asholiver
Kash Patel taunts Swalwell with FBI sit-down as resignation fallout grows
This week in Nashville, FBI Director Kash Patel spoke at the 15th Annual Rx and Illicit Drug Summit about fighting the deadly drug epidemic. He also shared about the Homeland Security Task Force model with the Governors Homeland Security Advisors Council (GHSAC).
"Several people familiar with the White House’s plans told us there are active discussions about others leaving the administration, including Kash Patel, Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer." @AshleyRParker and I report
ICYMI: There are discussions about FBI Director Kash Patel, Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leaving the Trump administration, the Atlantic reports, citing people familiar with White House plans. • •
There are discussions about FBI Director Kash Patel, Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leaving the Trump administration, the Atlantic reports, citing people familiar with White House plans. • •
BREAKING: WHITE HOUSE HOLDING ACTIVE DISCUSSIONS ABOUT OTHERS LEAVING THE ADMINISTRATION, INCLUDING FBI DIRECTOR KASH PATEL, ARMY SECRETARY DANIEL DRISCOLL, AND LABOR SECRETARY LORI CHAVEZ-DEREMER, PER THE ATLANTIC ...
NEW: “Several people familiar with the White House’s plans told us there are active discussions about others leaving the administration, including FBI Director Kash Patel, Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer” @AshleyRParker and I report @TheAtlantic
Discussions are underway regarding the potential departure of FBI Director Kash Patel, Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer from the Trump administration, according to The Atlantic. • • More Here →
NEW: Following the ousting of Pam Bondi and Kristi Noem, there are now active discussions about others leaving the administration, including FBI Director Kash Patel, Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer. - The Atlantic
House GOP leaders are punting the FISA reauthorization vote after FBI Director Kash Patel and other Trump admin off…
FBI Director Kash Patel is quite literally overhauling the FBI in real time, making it more efficient, less political, and the results are record numbers of arrests, drug seizures and violent crime reduction. • • I quite literally voted for this.
FBI Director Kash Patel tells Rep. Dan Crenshaw it's a "myth" that President Trump was targeted using FISA 702. • • Patel says he'd like FISA to be reauthorized for "5 or 10 years." • • Congress is considering an 18 month reauthorization.
NOThe Hill Reporter99%match67¢+16%
FBI Director Kash Patel arrives at Capitol to meet with GOP senators on FISA Sect. 702 authority. • • He’s greeted by Sen. Jerry Moran at Carriage Entrance.
NOMeet the Press99%match64¢+22%
Kash Patel fires at least six FBI agents tied to 2022 Mar-a-Lago search
YESunusual_whales99%match62¢-65%
Who will leave Trump administration before 2027? Right now, Pam Bondi is third likely, at 48%. Kash Patel is highest at 62%, on Polymarket.
NOOverton98%match60¢+30%
Kash Patel says the quiet part out loud, pinpointing the major difference between his FBI and Biden’s. When Hannity pointed out the stunning spike in top fugitives already captured, Patel responded: “We’re just getting started.” PATEL: “The simple juxtaposition, Sean, and you…
Where does the news lean?
21YES16NO20neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
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