Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
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Market pricing makes No Meeting by December 31 the favorite at 58% across 19 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
An Iranian official told Reuters: There is no deadline for exchanging messages with Washington through intermediaries to study the responses. An Iranian official confirmed to Reuters that there is no deadline for exchanging messages with the US through intermediaries to study the responses. The Iranian Foreign Ministry says that past experiences close the door to any optimism regarding the seriousness of the United States in the diplomatic process. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stressed the necessity of ending the war on all fronts as a fundamental condition before reaching any agreement.
Qatar: US and Iran review proposal to end war
No new point has been reached regarding the agreement. Spokesperson for the Iranian negotiating team: The exchange of messages by the mediators continues as before, and at the same time, the readiness for defense and a crushing response to any aggression is at the highest possible level. Previous experiences block any optimism regarding the seriousness of the US in diplomacy. At the same time, Iran will not miss any opportunity to use diplomacy to secure its legitimate interests and demands, repel the evil of the enemy, and establish security in the region. Earlier, some media outlets claimed that an agreement between Iran and the US was close. @YjcNewsChannel [in reply to: Baqaei: Stopping the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, is the key condition for any agreement/ Qatar and Pakistan continue to mediate between Iran and the US Spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Until Iran's legitimate and reasonable demands are met, we cannot talk about the return of security to the region. Ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, was one of the main provisions of the Islamabad understanding, which the US violated, and will continue to be one of Iran's key conditions in any diplomatic process. Qatar and Pakistan have continued their efforts to find solutions acceptable to both sides over the past months, and the recent exchanges are also within this framework. These countries convey the views of Iran and the other side to each other, and this process is part of the normal duties of mediation. Iran is in a state of war, and any action we take is an example of self-defense. Mr. Bagheri's trip to China was a bilateral trip within the framework of strategic relations and continuous exchanges between the two countries. Iran and China have a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement, and as far as I know, no trilateral meeting with Oman's presence has been held. @YjcNewsChannel]
Egypt announces readiness to mediate between Iran and the US The Egyptian president, warning of the widespread consequences of escalating conflicts, called on Tehran and Washington to pursue a political solution to the crisis with flexibility and dialogue. Read the full text at the link below: @Nournews_IR
Qatar awaits US and Iran's response on talks
US–IRAN: REPORTS SIGNAL POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH • • Washington has reportedly approved a draft memorandum of understanding presented to Iran by Qatari mediators, according to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, citing sources close to the mediation team. • • Discussions are reportedly underway over arrangements for a simultaneous announcement by both sides. • • Negotiators are said to be discussing the first steps toward an interim agreement, followed by a resumption of US–Iran talks. • • The reports remain unconfirmed, with no official agreement announced.
Live: Qatar reportedly expects feedback from U.S. and Iran on latest peace proposal within 36 hours
Sources say the US and Iran are expected to respond to the new proposal from Qatar's mediators within 36 hours.
Reuters, citing an informed source: Qatari mediators expect to receive responses from the US and Iran within 36 hours regarding a new proposal to move talks forward.
An official familiar with the negotiations told Reuters: Qatari mediators expect the United States and the Islamic Republic to present their response to the new proposal to advance the negotiations within the next 36 hours.
Qatar: “Progress in Indirect Negotiations with U.S. and Iran… Hope Still There”
Qatar "Progress in Indirect Negotiations with U.S. and Iran... Reviewing Proposals from Both Sides" (Roundup)
Qatar: “Progress in U.S.-Iran Negotiations”… Eyes on Iran’s ‘2-Day Plan’
Qatar: "Indirect Negotiations Between U.S. and Iran Progressing... Reviewing Proposals from Both Sides"
ALERT: Qatar says still working on US-Iran mediation, both sides open to talks
Qatari Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: Mediation team returns from Tehran to Doha. US and Iran are considering compromise proposal
#Breaking | Spokesperson for the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Yesterday's meetings and communications confirm the continued commitment of Iran and the United States to the negotiation process.
Al-Hadath sources: The Qataris went to Tehran to receive the response to their de-escalation proposal... and Pezeshkian, Qalibaf, and Araqchi advised the military authorities to respond positively to it. Al-Hadath sources: The Qataris went to Tehran solely to receive the Iranian response, not for further discussions. Pezeshkian, Qalibaf, and Araqchi advised the military authorities to respond positively to Qatar's proposal. The Iranians prefer direct meetings with mediators for security reasons. Political figures within Iran are pushing for de-escalation with the United States. Iranian assessments suggest that a return to war is now the most likely scenario.
Al-Arabiya sources: The Qataris went to Tehran to receive the response to their de-escalation proposal... and Pezeshkian, Qalibaf, and Araqchi advised the military authorities to respond positively to it. ======
Al-Arabiya sources: The Qataris went to Tehran solely to receive the Iranian response, not for further discussions. Pezeshkian, Qalibaf, and Araqchi advised the military authorities to respond positively to Qatar's proposal. The Iranians prefer direct meetings with mediators for security reasons. Political figures within Iran are pushing for de-escalation with the United States. Iranian assessments suggest that a return to war is now the most likely scenario.
As fears mount over a resumption of war between the US, Israel and Iran, a sign of diplomatic progress. • • A diplomat briefed on the talks tells Sky News that Qatari mediators have returned to Doha following “positive talks” in Tehran. Both sides are now reviewing proposals aimed at bridging their differences.
Reuters, quoting an official, reports that the Iranian negotiators' departure from the Doha talks was not due to a breakdown in negotiations aimed at ending the war with the US. The proposed draft is circulating to receive feedback from the parties, with the possibility of new meetings to continue the discussions.
A source familiar with the matter told Reuters: Qatari mediators are heading to Tehran for talks with Araqchi regarding a potential agreement between the US and Iran #AlMayadeen
Breaking | A source familiar with the matter told Reuters: Qatari mediators are heading to Tehran on Monday evening for talks with Araqchi regarding a potential agreement between the US and Iran.
The Wall Street Journal reported, citing mediators, that negotiations between the United States and the Islamic Republic, brokered by Qatar, have reached an impasse over which side should make concessions first.
A source familiar with the matter told Reuters that Qatari mediators are heading to Tehran for talks with Araqchi regarding a potential agreement between the United States and Iran.
Fars News Agency, citing an informed Iranian source: There have been no new developments in communications between the United States and Iran, and Tehran will not take any further steps until Washington fulfills its seven conditions.
Fars News Agency, citing an informed source: There have been no new developments in communications between the United States and Iran, and Tehran will not take any further steps until Washington fulfills its seven conditions. [in reply to: A Qatari delegation is heading to Tehran.]
Breaking News | According to my sources, in recent talks with Russia, including Putin’s call today with Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Iran has asked Moscow for weapons, intelligence assistance, money and political support at the United Nations. Iran has also asked Russia for help in advancing negotiations with the United States. Among the options raised were that Russia become a guarantor of the agreement or that Iran’s enriched uranium be transferred to Russia.
What is this event about?
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran begins by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement.
A diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presiding officer of a national legislature; a special envoy; or another individual designated by the head of state or head of government to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. Individuals authorized only for technical, implementation, monitoring, staff-level, preparatory, or working-group-level talks will not be considered designated to conduct diplomatic negotiations on behalf of the head of state or head of government. This definition includes, but is not limited to, all of the following individuals: for the United States, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Scott Bessent, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; and for Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. In each case, a qualifying representative must participate in the meeting.
A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city as part of a single organized round of talks convened for the purpose of diplomatic engagement, with the intermediary conveying communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location.
Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the listed countries is separately held alongside such a convening.
The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments.
If a qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins.
If the next qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.”
If the next qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.”
For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa.
If the next qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If no qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by December 31.”
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.