Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)Pause–Pause–Cut
ResolvedOutcome: No$623Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
18 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
BREAKING: Federal Reserve holds interest rates unchanged, the second pause this year after three straight rate cuts
@mhewson_MCH @DamianPudner Pause Mar, cut Apr would be how I guess they work this
NOBloomberg98%match62¢+61%
Traders in US futures and options markets are piling on bets that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates into next year instead of raising them
YESFinancialJuice98%match37¢-100%
Traders move Fed cut rate bets back to June
YESFirst Squawk98%match37¢-100%
TRADERS MOVE FED CUT RATE BETS BACK TO JUNE
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match63¢+59%
TRADERS NOW SEE FED WAITING UNTIL JULY TO CUT RATES
NOFirst Squawk98%match63¢+59%
TRADERS NOW SEE FED WAITING UNTIL JULY TO CUT RATES
NOFinancialJuice98%match63¢+59%
CPI Raises Fed Cut Wagers – US Market Wrap
YESFinancialJuice98%match37¢-100%
Fed's Goolsbee: I don't know how restrictive Fed policy is. I still think it would've been wiser in December to wait.
YESReuters98%match39¢-100%
Fed's interest rate pause bolstered by jobs data, but concerns linger
NOWSJ Markets98%match61¢+64%
Gold Falls on Prospects of Long Fed Pause
NOFinancialJuice98%match66¢+52%
Fed's Hammack: Right now, I think the Fed should stay on hold here.
YESReuters98%match34¢-100%
Fed's interest rate pause bolstered by jobs data, but concerns linger
YESFinancialJuice98%match33¢-100%
Fed's Schmid: Additional Fed rate cuts might permit higher inflation to continue for a longer time.
NOFinancialJuice98%match67¢+49%
Fed's Hammack Summary:
Fed rate policy could be on hold for quite some time. Inflation is still too high, and tariff issues still in play. There's a risk inflation could stick at 3% this year. It needs to come down. Job market stabilized into a low-hire, low-fire landscape.
NOFirst Squawk98%match67¢+49%
FED’S HAMMACK: FED RATE POLICY COULD BE ON HOLD 'FOR QUITE SOME TIME’
YESFirst Squawk98%match33¢-100%
FED’S BOSTIC: CHOPPY JOBS DATA ADDS TO CASE FOR FED CAUTION
YESFinancialJuice98%match33¢-100%
Fed's Bostic: Choppy jobs data is another reason for Fed caution.
Where does the news lean?
11YES11NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Related markets
See all outcomes for Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.