Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)Pause–Cut–Cut
ResolvedOutcome: No$539Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
22 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NOReuters99%match98¢+2%
Reuters Poll- Federal Reserve to Hold U.S. Fed Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% Range Until at Least September, Said 55 of 82 Economists (63 of 96 Predicted 25 Bps Q2 Cut in March 12 Poll)
NONews98%match98¢+2%
*TRADERS NO LONGER PRICE IN FED INTEREST RATE CUT DURING 2026
TRADERS NO LONGER PRICE IN FED INTEREST RATE CUT DURING 2026
*TRADERS NO LONGER PRICE IN FED INTEREST RATE CUT DURING 2026
Investors have continued to push back their expectations for when the Fed will next cut interest rates. Consensus is now that the Fed will not cut rates again this year and that it will be the middle of 2027 when the central bank finally does lower borrowing costs. Odds are currently clustered around a 0.25 percentage point cut to rates at the Fed’s June or July meeting next year.
Live: In charts: Traders have priced next Fed rate cut for March 2027
The Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, with only one person opposing it; it plans to maintain "one" rate cut this year.
Fed Holds Rates Steady, Still Projects One Rate Cut in 2026
"Hormuz Hold'em": FOMC Preview - The Fed's Playbook Is Hold or Cut, Not Hike
@mhewson_MCH @DamianPudner Pause Mar, cut Apr would be how I guess they work this
NOFirst Squawk99%match89¢+12%
TRADERS PARE FED RATE BETS, SEE 50 PCT CHANCE OF A 25BPS JUNE CUT
YESBloomberg98%match11¢-100%
Gold declined slightly, extending a loss in the previous session, on reduced expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the near term
NOBloomberg98%match89¢+12%
Traders in US futures and options markets are piling on bets that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates into next year instead of raising them
NOFirst Squawk98%match89¢+12%
BLACKROCK’S RIEDER: THE FED NEEDS TO CUT RATES – CNBC INTERVIEW
NOFinancialJuice99%match83¢+20%
Traders move Fed cut rate bets back to June
NOFirst Squawk99%match83¢+20%
TRADERS MOVE FED CUT RATE BETS BACK TO JUNE
NOFinancialJuice99%match83¢+20%
Traders now see Fed waiting until July to cut rates.
NO*Walter Bloomberg99%match83¢+20%
TRADERS NOW SEE FED WAITING UNTIL JULY TO CUT RATES
NOFirst Squawk99%match83¢+20%
TRADERS NOW SEE FED WAITING UNTIL JULY TO CUT RATES
NOFinancialJuice98%match90¢+11%
CPI Raises Fed Cut Wagers – US Market Wrap
NOFinancialJuice98%match89¢+12%
Fed's Goolsbee: If we're at 2% inflation, we can have several more cuts.
YESFirst Squawk98%match3¢-100%
FED’S BOSTIC: CHOPPY JOBS DATA ADDS TO CASE FOR FED CAUTION
Where does the news lean?
8YES19NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
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See all outcomes for Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.