Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

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Odds now

The market prices a 30% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES30¢
NO71¢

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What moved the odds?

60 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOiranintlbrk96%match68¢+3%
The International Maritime Organization report, citing tracking data, indicates limited and slow ship traffic and says that very few ships are returning to the Persian Gulf to receive new cargoes because many shipping companies are reluctant to return their large ships through the strait after removing them from the Persian Gulf.
NOjoongang.co.kr92%match66¢+6%
Ship Attack Amidst Hormuz Traffic Stagnation… Reopening Has a Long Way to Go
NOaljazeera.com93%match66¢+6%
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic remains low amid US-Iran standoff
NOalhadath95%match62¢+13%
Six months since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz... Shipping traffic has declined by approximately 85%, from 95 to 15 ships daily, and thousands of sailors await safe passage through one of the world's most vital energy and trade arteries. #FromTheEvent
NOaljazeera.com95%match62¢+13%
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic holds at low levels on Tuesday
YESnypost.com92%match39¢-23%
Iran, Oman reach agreement to temporarily reopen Strait of Hormuz
NOIran's judiciary-run Mizan92%match61¢+15%
Gharibabadi: The southern route of the Strait of Hormuz will be closed; if our requirements are not met, the strait will remain closed Deputy Foreign Minister: The southern route of the Strait of Hormuz will be closed and this is an agreement. Oman agrees that this route will be closed and the matter will be reported to the International Maritime Organization. Negotiations between Iran and Oman for the future management of the Strait of Hormuz will begin, which will take up to 60 days to determine joint arrangements. If Iran's requirements are not met, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. [in reply to: Gharibabadi: The Strait of Hormuz will not open tomorrow; The new route is like a round-trip highway. The Deputy Foreign Minister explained the details of the understanding between Iran and Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing that this understanding does not mean the immediate opening of the strait tomorrow, and that these are two separate issues. For the past 58 years, ships have been passing through Omani waters, and Iran has suffered severe damage. The Strait of Hormuz is now a matter of national security for Iran, and fundamental changes must be made to the entry and exit routes. According to this understanding, the entry route to the Persian Gulf will be through Iranian waters and the exit route through Omani territorial waters, and ships will pass through Iranian waters on both routes. This route is "like a round-trip highway" with a total width of about 7 miles. The route is temporary, and Iran and Oman must negotiate a new permanent route within 30 to 60 days to replace the previous maritime traffic plan. Mizan on social networks @mizanplus‏]
NOFrench Media94%match67¢+4%
At its lowest point in four months: only two ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, compared to 140 before the war.
NObfmtv.com94%match67¢+4%
At its lowest point in four months: only two ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, compared to 140 before the war.
NOalarabiya95%match67¢+4%
After the number of transiting vessels dropped from six to one, shipping data shows cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in three months.
The number of merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to a new low in more than three months.
NOaljazeera.com94%match67¢+4%
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic drops to single vessel on Monday
NOAsharq95%match67¢+4%
Reuters reports: Cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in over three months.
NOAl Hadath94%match67¢+4%
Shipping data: Cargo vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in three months.
NOAl Arabiya95%match67¢+4%
Shipping data: Cargo vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz falls to its lowest level in 3 months
NOReuters93%match67¢+4%
Commodity Vessel Transit Through Strait of Hormuz Falls to More Than Three-Month Low,Data Shows
NOalarabiya_bn93%match65¢+8%
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has declined by approximately 90% compared to pre-conflict levels. #AlArabiya_Business
YESalarabiya94%match32¢-6%
New York Post: Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz weakens as shipping traffic surges by nearly 400% in two weeks under US protection ====== The New York Post reported that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz appears to be waning. The newspaper revealed that shipping traffic in this vital waterway has increased by nearly 400% in the past two weeks, coinciding with more ships using a transit route under US protection. The report revealed that approximately 200 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz last week, compared to about 150 the week before, and only 40 two weeks prior. Shipping traffic in the strait has reached about 20% of its pre-war level. Under normal circumstances, about 20% of the world's seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. From Al Arabiya
YESUS Secretary of War93%match29¢+3%
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz skyrockets nearly 400%, as analysts say Iran's grip on critical waterway weakens
NOcnn.com94%match69¢+1%
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic this week was 20% of pre-war average, though US says "oil is flowing"
NOIranian Media93%match69¢+1%
UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to 4% of pre-conflict levels. @iribnews
NOaljazeera.com94%match69¢+1%
Live: Ship traffic through Strait of Hormuz slides as peace talks remain in limbo
NOalarabiya94%match64¢+9%
Strait of Hormuz: Shipping slows down, with only 6 cargo ships passing through yesterday compared to 9 the day before.
NOAl Hadath94%match64¢+9%
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains low, with only 6 ships passing through on Tuesday.
NOalarabytv93%match63¢+11%
The Strait of Hormuz is "open," according to Trump's statements, but reports indicate a sharp decline in shipping traffic.
NOAsharq94%match66¢+6%
Reuters: Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains slow, with only 6 vessels passing through on Monday.
NOalmayadeenlive94%match56¢+25%
Reuters: Data showed a slowdown in ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.
NOalarabiya93%match56¢+25%
Reuters, citing shipping data: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slowed over the past two days.
NOiranintlbrk93%match56¢+25%
Data shows that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was slow on Saturday and Sunday following attacks on oil tankers and the lack of progress in Iran-US peace talks.
NOcnn.com97%match55¢+27%
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic remains at a fraction of pre-war levels
NOcnn.com96%match54¢+30%
Live: Hormuz traffic remains at less than a fifth of pre-war average
NOIran's judiciary-run Mizan93%match54¢+30%
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is at a complete standstill
NOIranian Media94%match54¢+30%
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is severely reduced; vital oil route remains restricted Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted, and according to data from the Kepler maritime information company, only 13 ships passed through the waterway on Thursday. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir
NOalarabiya92%match54¢+30%
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is heading towards a complete standstill as Iranian military escalation continues.
NOaljazeera.com95%match54¢+30%
Live: Transit through Strait of Hormuz comes at a standstill, data shows
NOalarabiya_bn92%match53¢+32%
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is nearing its lowest level in three months. #AlArabiya_Business
NOabkt19899092%match53¢+32%
British Maritime Authority: Commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at low levels.
NOnews.web.nhk93%match54¢+30%
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz "approaching its lowest level since May," according to US media.
NOalarabiya93%match54¢+30%
Wall Street Journal: Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to one-fifth of its previous level.
NOcnbc93%match53¢+32%
Strait of Hormuz ship traffic near three-month low as U.S.-Iran deal in doubt
NOcnbc.com93%match53¢+32%
Strait of Hormuz ship traffic near three-month low as U.S.-Iran deal in doubt
NOWalter Bloomberg97%match53¢+32%
HORMUZ TRAFFIC REMAINS NEAR A STANDSTILL • • Only 14 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, according to Kpler, despite Trump declaring the waterway “open.” • • That remains far below the roughly 120 vessels per day seen before the war. • • Of those 14 ships, 11 used the Iranian-approved route, while none used the traditional central passage. • • Kpler says the modest traffic increase does not signal normalization, keeping pressure on global oil supplies.
NOcbsnews.com95%match52¢+35%
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic falls to one-week low
NOaljazeera.com95%match52¢+35%
Live: Vessel traffic through Strait of Hormuz falls to one-week low
NOAl Hadath95%match52¢+35%
Shipping data: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz falls to its lowest level this week
NOsedaily.com91%match51¢+37%
Trump says it's open... Hormuz daily traffic ‘plummets’ to 6 [US-Iran War]
NOzerohedge92%match51¢+37%
Hormuz Traffic Sank To Just Six Vessels Monday
NOalarabiya94%match53¢+32%
Shipping data: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz drops to just 6 vessels
NOIran Semi-Official ILNA97%match53¢+32%
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced to a minimum Maritime transport data shows that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased to 6 ships yesterday. This is while the 10-day average of this figure was about 11 ships. @ilnair
NONews93%match53¢+32%
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced to a minimum — Kepler Institute: Only 6 ships passed through the Strait yesterday, none of which were oil tankers
NONews93%match53¢+32%
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz reduced to a minimum
NOIran Semi-Official Fars95%match53¢+32%
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced to a minimum Maritime transport data shows that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased to 6 ships yesterday. This is while the 10-day average of this figure was about 11 ships. @Farsna - Link [in reply to: Trump's fantasy: The Strait of Hormuz is open and under US control On Monday evening, the US President claimed that the Strait of Hormuz has been completely cleared of naval mines, but said that Iran can still cause problems. In response to questions from reporters in his office, Trump claimed: "We have a perfect blockade [against Iran]. They are bankrupt and they have no money." @FarsNewsInt - Link]
NOtheguardian.com92%match53¢+32%
Live: Jefferies analyst Mohit Kumar said: We are back to the situation where there is no war ongoing, but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. There is little officia
NOentekhab_news92%match53¢+32%
Wall Street Journal: Energy producers in the Persian Gulf are more than ever expecting Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz to be sustainable Crude oil shipments through the waterway have fallen to about 2.2 million barrels per day in the past week, a far cry from the 20 million barrels that passed through the strait before the war Countries in the region are more willing than ever to accept Tehran's control of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for avoiding another conflict / Selection
NOaljazeera.com92%match53¢+32%
Live: Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic drops to six as US-Iran peace deal hopes fade
NOiranintl92%match53¢+32%
As uncertainty over the talks between the Islamic Republic and Oman continued and hopes for a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz dwindled, oil prices rose again, with Brent crude reaching near $87 per barrel. Attacks by the Tehran-backed Houthi rebels and continued disruptions to shipping traffic also added to concerns in global energy markets. The Islamic Republic has said that a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz depends on the US ending its blockade of Iranian shipping, paying compensation and accepting other conditions from Tehran. US President Donald Trump rejected these demands, saying the Islamic Republic must pay compensation for the deaths and injuries of Americans. At the same time, an attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and an attack by the Houthis on the Saudi-owned Jazan refinery have pushed up the prices of diesel and natural gas in Europe. Analysts say geopolitical risk will continue to support oil prices until shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal. Also, a Fox News report shows that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has reached its lowest level since 1983.
NOIran Semi-Official Fars93%match53¢+32%
Latest satellite images of the Strait of Hormuz Trump says, "The Strait of Hormuz is open and we control it," but maritime monitors say few ships are passing through Iran. Data from the maritime traffic tracking company Marine Traffic shows that the passage through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased significantly and the flow through Iran is continuing; the company's satellite monitoring says that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz decreased by 9 ships on Sunday compared to Friday. Last night, images of flames were released near the Strait of Hormuz, which was said to be a vessel burning in the "shallow" area of ​​Omani waters; hours later, images showed that a ship that was trying to enter the Strait of Hormuz with a US escort had been targeted. @Farsna - Link
NOaljazeera.com92%match38¢+84%
Live: Traffic in Bab al-Mandeb and Hormuz falls
NOIran State News Agency92%match38¢+84%
Gharibabadi: The new route in the Strait of Hormuz is temporary but could be valid for 2 to 4 months or more Deputy Minister of Legal and International Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on IRNA's "Diplomacy Desk": To enter the second phase after the understanding with Oman, we need to make a new decision. We must assess whether the US is truly ready to return to its commitments or not. The US sent a message requesting negotiations and resolving issues 4 or 5 days after the start of the new round of conflicts. This route, which is currently being understood with Oman, is considered a "Temporary Route" which could naturally last from two to four months. In paragraph 5 of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, these Iranian arrangements were foreseen for a period of one month; This means that after a month, the situation of ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz should have returned to the previous conditions, that is, the normal conditions before the war. So those arrangements were an Iranian arrangement, and of course we had to subsequently discuss with Oman about the "Future Administration Arrangements" to define and determine future arrangements. However, in the current discussions with Oman, the issue has been foreseen in such a way that this temporary route can continue for a longer period of time; because we do not know what conditions we will face in the future and whether these conditions will reach a stable, sustainable and permanent state or not. The third point is about costs. The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding stipulated that Iran would not receive any costs within 60 days of signing. This issue also depends entirely on the second phase and the decision of the high-ranking officials of the regime to enter the second phase and whether or not the strait will be opened. Because these issues are interconnected and we are not faced with a unilateral commitment that only the Islamic Republic of Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz, but the conditions surrounding us are the same as those during wartime; this is definitely unacceptable. @IRNA_1313
NOWalter Bloomberg97%match38¢+84%
SHIPPING ANALYSTS QUESTION HORMUZ RECOVERY • • Shipping analysts are more cautious than U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on a recovery in Strait of Hormuz traffic. • • While Bessent said a U.S.-Iran deal could come "today or tomorrow," analysts report fewer than 10 ships transiting daily. Kpler recorded just nine crossings on Sunday, including only two tankers. • • Estimated crude flows remain at 3–5 million bpd, far below the pre-conflict 20 million bpd. Saudi Aramco says replenishing inventories could take up to 18 months, even if the strait reopens immediately.

Where does the news lean?

134YES347NO19neutraltrailing 24h

Signal flow leans NO at 81% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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