Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
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The market prices a 14% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES14¢
NO87¢
as of
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70 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization announced that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still about 75 percent lower than before the war began.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at its lowest level in two months... and oil prices rise. Shipping data showed that the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in more than two months, after attacks on oil tankers passing through this vital waterway last week reached their highest level since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz drops to its lowest level in more than two months
Reuters: Ship transit in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to a two-month low.
No ships in Hormuz Strait Satellite images released of the Strait of Hormuz show no ships in the passage. This is despite Trump claiming that the Strait of Hormuz is open. Last weekend, only 5 ships passed through the Strait, and no crossings were recorded for Sunday.
Reuters: Ship traffic in #Strait_of_Hormuz decreased to 9
Reuters: Shipping tracking data shows the number of cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped below 10.
Live: Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic rises slightly but remains below average
Kpler Analytics: Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has declined to very limited levels
#AlArabyTV
The Strait of Hormuz is "choking"... a sharp decline in traffic amid fears of escalation
FWD from Mehr International: 80% decrease in ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz Published maritime information indicates that only 3 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, and this figure reached five ships on Monday. Reuters also reported that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on the previous day reached four. This is while the average number of these ships over the past 10 days was 18. This means that the Strait of Hormuz has witnessed a more than 80% decrease in ship traffic compared to the previous 10 days. mehrnews.com/x3d537 @MehrnewsIntl
Live: Strait of Hormuz vessel transits drop to four, data shows
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has declined following an escalation of attacks.
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz declines following escalation of attacks in the Middle East
Reuters: Shipping data shows a decline in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following escalating attacks in the Middle East
Data shows that daily traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to single digits.
Reuters: Initial ship tracking data shows that cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to less than 10 ships per day over the weekend, well below the 10-day average of 14 ships.
Reuters: Vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz decreased to 7 yesterday Of these 7 vessels, two vessels left the Strait of Hormuz and 5 vessels entered the strait. This is while before the start of the war against Iran on March 30, about 125 large commercial vessels usually passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily. nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
Commercial vessels are stranded off the Iranian city of Bandar Abbas in Hormozgan province, awaiting the resumption of shipping traffic after Tehran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on August 12 following the tit-for-tat attacks with the United States.
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to record lows. Al-Araby TV correspondent Yasser Masoud reports:
Live: Traffic through Strait of Hormuz will remain constrained through end of year, U.S. energy agency says
Live: Traffic through Strait of Hormuz reportedly hits lowest level since May
Live: Traffic in Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels, data shows
Shipping traffic via Strait of Hormuz stays below 10-day average, data shows
FWD from ISNA World: Sharp decline in ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz Maritime traffic data shows a significant drop in commercial ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to about 5 ships per day; a tangible decline that has come in the wake of escalating regional tensions and recent military clashes. isna.ir/xdWZ93
@IsnaWorld
Maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to 5 ships per day in recent days.
Reuters, citing shipping data: Number of commodity ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz falls to 5 per day
The International Maritime Organization report, citing tracking data, indicates limited and slow ship traffic and says that very few ships are returning to the Persian Gulf to receive new cargoes because many shipping companies are reluctant to return their large ships through the strait after removing them from the Persian Gulf.
NOReuters93%match67¢+28%
Commodity Vessel Transit Through Strait of Hormuz Falls to More Than Three-Month Low，Data Shows
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has declined by approximately 90% compared to pre-conflict levels. #AlArabiya_Business
New York Post: Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz weakens as shipping traffic surges by nearly 400% in two weeks under US protection ====== The New York Post reported that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz appears to be waning. The newspaper revealed that shipping traffic in this vital waterway has increased by nearly 400% in the past two weeks, coinciding with more ships using a transit route under US protection. The report revealed that approximately 200 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz last week, compared to about 150 the week before, and only 40 two weeks prior. Shipping traffic in the strait has reached about 20% of its pre-war level. Under normal circumstances, about 20% of the world's seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. From Al Arabiya
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz skyrockets nearly 400%, as analysts say Iran's grip on critical waterway weakens
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic this week was 20% of pre-war average, though US says "oil is flowing"
UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to 4% of pre-conflict levels. @iribnews
Live: Ship traffic through Strait of Hormuz slides as peace talks remain in limbo
Strait of Hormuz: Shipping slows down, with only 6 cargo ships passing through yesterday compared to 9 the day before.
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains low, with only 6 ships passing through on Tuesday.
The Strait of Hormuz is "open," according to Trump's statements, but reports indicate a sharp decline in shipping traffic.
Reuters: Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains slow, with only 6 vessels passing through on Monday.
Reuters: Data showed a slowdown in ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.
Reuters, citing shipping data: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slowed over the past two days.
Data shows that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was slow on Saturday and Sunday following attacks on oil tankers and the lack of progress in Iran-US peace talks.
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic remains at a fraction of pre-war levels
Live: Hormuz traffic remains at less than a fifth of pre-war average
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is at a complete standstill
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is severely reduced; vital oil route remains restricted Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted, and according to data from the Kepler maritime information company, only 13 ships passed through the waterway on Thursday. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is heading towards a complete standstill as Iranian military escalation continues.
Live: Transit through Strait of Hormuz comes at a standstill, data shows
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is nearing its lowest level in three months. #AlArabiya_Business
British Maritime Authority: Commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at low levels.
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz "approaching its lowest level since May," according to US media.
Wall Street Journal: Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to one-fifth of its previous level.
Strait of Hormuz ship traffic near three-month low as U.S.-Iran deal in doubt
Strait of Hormuz ship traffic near three-month low as U.S.-Iran deal in doubt
HORMUZ TRAFFIC REMAINS NEAR A STANDSTILL • • Only 14 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, according to Kpler, despite Trump declaring the waterway “open.” • • That remains far below the roughly 120 vessels per day seen before the war. • • Of those 14 ships, 11 used the Iranian-approved route, while none used the traditional central passage. • • Kpler says the modest traffic increase does not signal normalization, keeping pressure on global oil supplies.
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic falls to one-week low
Live: Vessel traffic through Strait of Hormuz falls to one-week low
Shipping data: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz falls to its lowest level this week
Trump says it's open... Hormuz daily traffic ‘plummets’ to 6 [US-Iran War]
Hormuz Traffic Sank To Just Six Vessels Monday
Shipping data: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz drops to just 6 vessels
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced to a minimum Maritime transport data shows that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased to 6 ships yesterday. This is while the 10-day average of this figure was about 11 ships. @ilnair
NONews93%match53¢+62%
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced to a minimum — Kepler Institute: Only 6 ships passed through the Strait yesterday, none of which were oil tankers
NONews93%match53¢+62%
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz reduced to a minimum
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced to a minimum Maritime transport data shows that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased to 6 ships yesterday. This is while the 10-day average of this figure was about 11 ships.
@Farsna - Link [in reply to: Trump's fantasy: The Strait of Hormuz is open and under US control On Monday evening, the US President claimed that the Strait of Hormuz has been completely cleared of naval mines, but said that Iran can still cause problems. In response to questions from reporters in his office, Trump claimed: "We have a perfect blockade [against Iran]. They are bankrupt and they have no money." @FarsNewsInt - Link]
Live: Jefferies analyst Mohit Kumar said: We are back to the situation where there is no war ongoing, but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. There is little officia
Wall Street Journal: Energy producers in the Persian Gulf are more than ever expecting Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz to be sustainable Crude oil shipments through the waterway have fallen to about 2.2 million barrels per day in the past week, a far cry from the 20 million barrels that passed through the strait before the war Countries in the region are more willing than ever to accept Tehran's control of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for avoiding another conflict / Selection
Live: Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic drops to six as US-Iran peace deal hopes fade
As uncertainty over the talks between the Islamic Republic and Oman continued and hopes for a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz dwindled, oil prices rose again, with Brent crude reaching near $87 per barrel. Attacks by the Tehran-backed Houthi rebels and continued disruptions to shipping traffic also added to concerns in global energy markets. The Islamic Republic has said that a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz depends on the US ending its blockade of Iranian shipping, paying compensation and accepting other conditions from Tehran. US President Donald Trump rejected these demands, saying the Islamic Republic must pay compensation for the deaths and injuries of Americans. At the same time, an attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and an attack by the Houthis on the Saudi-owned Jazan refinery have pushed up the prices of diesel and natural gas in Europe. Analysts say geopolitical risk will continue to support oil prices until shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal. Also, a Fox News report shows that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has reached its lowest level since 1983.
Latest satellite images of the Strait of Hormuz Trump says, "The Strait of Hormuz is open and we control it," but maritime monitors say few ships are passing through Iran. Data from the maritime traffic tracking company Marine Traffic shows that the passage through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased significantly and the flow through Iran is continuing; the company's satellite monitoring says that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz decreased by 9 ships on Sunday compared to Friday. Last night, images of flames were released near the Strait of Hormuz, which was said to be a vessel burning in the "shallow" area of Omani waters; hours later, images showed that a ship that was trying to enter the Strait of Hormuz with a US escort had been targeted.
@Farsna - Link
Where does the news lean?
108YES383NO9neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 84% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.