Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)Pause–Cut–Pause
ResolvedOutcome: No$207Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The Fed’s Rate Cuts Are On Pause. But Are They Also Off the Table? - WSJ • •
The Fed's Rate Cuts Are On Pause. But Are They Also Off the Table? -- WSJ
BREAKING: Federal Reserve holds interest rates unchanged, the second pause this year after three straight rate cuts as policymakers try to navigate through sticky inflation readings, mixed signs on the labor market, and wars overseas.
The Federal Reserve announces it's decision to pause or cuts rates at 2p ET / 11a PT. The markets overwhelmingly believe there will be a pause today. #InterestRates
NOFinancialJuice98%match99¢+1%
Traders move Fed cut rate bets back to June
NOFirst Squawk98%match99¢+1%
TRADERS MOVE FED CUT RATE BETS BACK TO JUNE
NOFinancialJuice98%match99¢+1%
Traders now see Fed waiting until July to cut rates.
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match99¢+1%
TRADERS NOW SEE FED WAITING UNTIL JULY TO CUT RATES
NOFirst Squawk98%match99¢+1%
TRADERS NOW SEE FED WAITING UNTIL JULY TO CUT RATES
Where does the news lean?
2YES7NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
gamma-backfill
Related markets
See all outcomes for Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.