Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
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The market prices a 7% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES7¢
NO94¢
as of
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35 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
#Breaking | Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization to Al-Araby TV:
Average daily transit through the Strait of Hormuz: 15 ships
6,000 cargo ships have been stranded in the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the conflict
Reuters reported on Thursday, October 6, that the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in more than two months after a surge in attacks on oil tankers last week.
Just seven commercial ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the lowest number since August 1, Reuters reported, based on data and analysis from Kepler Analytics. Crude oil transits through the strait also fell 27 percent from their wartime highs last week to at least 10.1 million barrels per day, or 74 percent of pre-war levels.
The bulk of the decline was due to ship-to-ship transfers in the Sea of Oman, analysts at Kepler said.
However, exports from the coasts of the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea rose to 6.7 million barrels per day, more than double pre-war levels, helping to offset the drop in supply through the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported.
The number of ships transiting the strait rose to 10 on Wednesday, but was still far below the more than 20 ships on Sunday and Monday, Kepler data showed.
@VahidOOnLine @VahidOnline
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz drops to its lowest level in more than two months
Al Jazeera, citing shipping data: The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in more than two months as attacks hit their highest level since the start of the war On Tuesday, only 7 cargo ships passed through the waterway The volume of crude oil passing through the strait also fell by 27% last week from its peak during the war / Selected
Reuters: Ship transit in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to a two-month low.
Live: Oil through Hormuz climbs closer to pre-war levels
No ships in Hormuz Strait Satellite images released of the Strait of Hormuz show no ships in the passage. This is despite Trump claiming that the Strait of Hormuz is open. Last weekend, only 5 ships passed through the Strait, and no crossings were recorded on Sunday. This is compared to 31 ships the previous weekend.
@Farsna
Reuters: Shipping tracking data shows the number of cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped below 10.
Hormuz vessel traffic falls to two, data shows
Reuters: Ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz fell threefold over the weekend.
Live: Weekend ship traffic through Strait of Hormuz drops
Reuters: Visible traffic through the strait, which before the war carried a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas, has fallen sharply. Yet Middle Eastern producers continue to export their oil on tankers with their location transmitters turned off.
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic remains around ‘90% below pre-conflict levels’ as gas prices climb
FWD from Mehr International: 80% decrease in ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz Published maritime information indicates that only 3 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, and this figure reached five ships on Monday. Reuters also reported that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on the previous day reached four. This is while the average number of these ships over the past 10 days was 18. This means that the Strait of Hormuz has witnessed a more than 80% decrease in ship traffic compared to the previous 10 days. mehrnews.com/x3d537 @MehrnewsIntl
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz declines following escalation of attacks in the Middle East
Reuters: Shipping data shows a decline in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following escalating attacks in the Middle East
FWD from Mehr International: Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to one-tenth of pre-war levels Julie Kozak, the International Monetary Fund's communications director, announced on Thursday that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has now fallen to only one-tenth of the pre-war levels. Kozak said in a press conference that some countries have used strategic oil and gas reserves to meet their needs, but these reserves must eventually be replenished. mehrnews.com/x3d2TL @MehrnewsIntl
IMF: Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to 10% of pre-war levels
Commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level since May.
Live: Traffic in Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels, data shows
Hormuz vessel traffic drops further: Update
Reuters: The number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz has stabilized at around 5, which is lower than the average of about 14 ships over the past 10 days.
NOReuters94%match82¢+13%
Commodity Vessels Transiting via Strait of Hormuz Drop to 5 Per Day Over Weekend -Data
Al Jazeera: The average number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from 100 before the war to 7 per day Mizan on social media @mizanplus
Six months after the start of the war, trade in the Strait of Hormuz has declined by 85%, and an Iranian closure in response to US-Israeli strikes is strangling a waterway that once handled a fifth of the world's oil and gas exports.
Everything about the Iran-Oman agreement on the Strait of Hormuz; the 7-mile corridor and Tehran's conditions for reopening the strategic waterway After about 45 days of negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran and Oman have reached a phased framework for the passage of commercial vessels; an agreement that does not reopen the strait and determines a temporary 7-mile route along with Tehran's security conditions for the future of this waterway. Report details Get the latest news:
Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
International maritime data: Data shows that 5 cargo ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, which is below average.
At its lowest point in four months: only two ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, compared to 140 before the war.
Shipping data: Cargo vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz falls to its lowest level in 3 months
An assessment by the British Maritime Trade Organization also shows that since the beginning of the war against Iran, commercial ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased from nearly 160 to less than 10.
Live: Commercial traffic through Strait of Hormuz remains at 20 percent of pre-war levels, report reveals
UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to 4% of pre-conflict levels @YjcNewsChannel
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped below the monthly average, with only 9 ships transiting yesterday.
Even if navigation resumes in the Strait of Hormuz, regional countries are building for the post-crisis phase. Oil transit has dropped from 20 million barrels per day to 3.7 million, and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq are accelerating alternative export routes.
Even if navigation resumes in the Strait of Hormuz, regional countries are building for the post-crisis phase. Oil transit has dropped from 20 million barrels per day to 3.7 million, and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq are accelerating alternative export routes.
Where does the news lean?
95YES287NO46neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 83% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.