Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Open$168Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 19% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES19¢
NO82¢
as of
What moved the odds?
24 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Al Jazeera: The average number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from 100 before the war to 7 per day Mizan on social media @mizanplus
Ship Attack Amidst Hormuz Traffic Stagnation… Reopening Has a Long Way to Go
Six months after the start of the war, trade in the Strait of Hormuz has declined by 85%, and an Iranian closure in response to US-Israeli strikes is strangling a waterway that once handled a fifth of the world's oil and gas exports.
Everything about the Iran-Oman agreement on the Strait of Hormuz; the 7-mile corridor and Tehran's conditions for reopening the strategic waterway After about 45 days of negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran and Oman have reached a phased framework for the passage of commercial vessels; an agreement that does not reopen the strait and determines a temporary 7-mile route along with Tehran's security conditions for the future of this waterway. Report details Get the latest news:
Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
Six months since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz... Shipping traffic has declined by approximately 85%, from 95 to 15 ships daily, and thousands of sailors await safe passage through one of the world's most vital energy and trade arteries. #FromTheEvent
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic holds at low levels on Tuesday
International maritime data: Data shows that 5 cargo ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, which is below average.
Gharibabadi: The southern route of the Strait of Hormuz will be closed; if our requirements are not met, the strait will remain closed Deputy Foreign Minister: The southern route of the Strait of Hormuz will be closed and this is an agreement. Oman agrees that this route will be closed and the matter will be reported to the International Maritime Organization. Negotiations between Iran and Oman for the future management of the Strait of Hormuz will begin, which will take up to 60 days to determine joint arrangements. If Iran's requirements are not met, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. [in reply to: Gharibabadi: The Strait of Hormuz will not open tomorrow; The new route is like a round-trip highway. The Deputy Foreign Minister explained the details of the understanding between Iran and Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing that this understanding does not mean the immediate opening of the strait tomorrow, and that these are two separate issues. For the past 58 years, ships have been passing through Omani waters, and Iran has suffered severe damage. The Strait of Hormuz is now a matter of national security for Iran, and fundamental changes must be made to the entry and exit routes. According to this understanding, the entry route to the Persian Gulf will be through Iranian waters and the exit route through Omani territorial waters, and ships will pass through Iranian waters on both routes. This route is "like a round-trip highway" with a total width of about 7 miles. The route is temporary, and Iran and Oman must negotiate a new permanent route within 30 to 60 days to replace the previous maritime traffic plan. Mizan on social networks @mizanplus]
Six months since the start of the Middle East war, the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains largely paralysed, with thousands of sailors still stranded in the Gulf and commodity carrier traffic way below its normal level. •
At its lowest point in four months: only two ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, compared to 140 before the war.
At its lowest point in four months: only two ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, compared to 140 before the war.
Cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz falls to its lowest level in 3 months #Strait_of_Hormuz #Here_is_the_Kingdom
Reuters: Cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has reached its lowest level in more than three months Mizan on social media @mizanplus
Commodity vessel transits through Strait of Hormuz fall to three-month low，data shows
Shipping data: Cargo vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz falls to its lowest level in 3 months
Reuters reports: Cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in over three months.
Shipping data: Cargo ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in three months.
Shipping data: Cargo vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz falls to its lowest level in 3 months
An assessment by the British Maritime Trade Organization also shows that since the beginning of the war against Iran, commercial ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased from nearly 160 to less than 10.
Live: Commercial traffic through Strait of Hormuz remains at 20 percent of pre-war levels, report reveals
UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to 4% of pre-conflict levels @YjcNewsChannel
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped below the monthly average, with only 9 ships transiting yesterday.
Even if navigation resumes in the Strait of Hormuz, regional countries are building for the post-crisis phase. Oil transit has dropped from 20 million barrels per day to 3.7 million, and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq are accelerating alternative export routes.
Even if navigation resumes in the Strait of Hormuz, regional countries are building for the post-crisis phase. Oil transit has dropped from 20 million barrels per day to 3.7 million, and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq are accelerating alternative export routes.
Where does the news lean?
26YES139NO8neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 82% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.