Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)Cut–Cut–Pause
ResolvedOutcome: Noas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
19 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Investors have continued to push back their expectations for when the Fed will next cut interest rates. Consensus is now that the Fed will not cut rates again this year and that it will be the middle of 2027 when the central bank finally does lower borrowing costs. Odds are currently clustered around a 0.25 percentage point cut to rates at the Fed’s June or July meeting next year.
RATE FUTURES NOW PRICE FIRST FED CUT PUSHED OUT TO APRIL 2027
Traders push out bets on Fed rate cut to April 2027, according to Rate-Future pricing.
Live: In charts: Traders have priced next Fed rate cut for March 2027
The Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, with only one person opposing it; it plans to maintain "one" rate cut this year.
Fed Holds Rates Steady, Still Projects One Rate Cut in 2026
NOzerohedge99%match99¢+1%
Market Bets Soar That Fed Will Cut Rates To 2% In 2027
YESFirst Squawk99%match1¢-100%
TRADERS PARE FED RATE BETS, SEE 50 PCT CHANCE OF A 25BPS JUNE CUT
NOBloomberg98%match99¢+1%
Gold declined slightly, extending a loss in the previous session, on reduced expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the near term
NOReuters98%match98¢+2%
Fed's interest rate pause bolstered by jobs data, but concerns linger
NOFinancialJuice98%match98¢+2%
Fed's Hammack: Right now, I think the Fed should stay on hold here.
NOFinancialJuice98%match98¢+2%
Fed's hammack: Good for the Fed to stay on hold right now, doesn't need to fine-tune rate policy.
NOReuters98%match98¢+2%
Fed's interest rate pause bolstered by jobs data, but concerns linger
NOFinancialJuice98%match98¢+2%
Fed's Schmid: Additional Fed rate cuts might permit higher inflation to continue for a longer time.
NOzerohedge98%match98¢+2%
*TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN FED RATE CUT BY JULY VS JUNE PREVIOUSLY
YES*Walter Bloomberg98%match2¢-100%
TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN FED RATE CUT BY JULY VS JUNE PREVIOUSLY
YESFirst Squawk98%match2¢-100%
TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN FED RATE CUT BY JULY VS JUNE PREVIOUSLY
NOFirst Squawk98%match98¢+2%
FED’S BOSTIC: CHOPPY JOBS DATA ADDS TO CASE FOR FED CAUTION
NOFinancialJuice98%match98¢+2%
Fed's Bostic: Choppy jobs data is another reason for Fed caution.
Where does the news lean?
5YES17NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
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See all outcomes for Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.