Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
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Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
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32 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The state-run Mehr news agency reported that since August 21, the Islamic Republic's armed forces have prevented 30 vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and during this period, limited vessel traffic has only been allowed via routes approved by the Islamic Republic, with coordination and payment of tolls.
NONews93%match96¢+1%
The average daily number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from 100 before the war to 7.
Al Jazeera: Average number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from 100 before the war to 7 per day/59% of US strategic reserves are empty @iribnews
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic remains low amid US-Iran standoff
Six months after the start of the war, trade in the Strait of Hormuz has declined by 85%, and an Iranian closure in response to US-Israeli strikes is strangling a waterway that once handled a fifth of the world's oil and gas exports.
Six months since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz... Shipping traffic has declined by approximately 85%, from 95 to 15 ships daily, and thousands of sailors await safe passage through one of the world's most vital energy and trade arteries. #FromTheEvent
Six months since the start of the Middle East war, the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains largely paralysed, with thousands of sailors still stranded in the Gulf and commodity carrier traffic way below its normal level. •
After the number of transiting vessels dropped from six to one, shipping data shows cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in three months.
Urgent
Shipping data from Kpler: Cargo vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in 3 months
The number of merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to a new low in more than three months.
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic drops to single vessel on Monday
Shipping data: Cargo vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz falls to its lowest level in 3 months
Reuters reports: Cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in over three months.
Shipping data: Cargo ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in three months.
Guterres: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has almost stopped UN Secretary-General: Only in the Strait of Hormuz, traffic has almost completely stopped. Attacks and disruptions to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have limited the movement of energy, fertilizer and other essential goods. @YjcNewsChannel
New York Post: Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz weakens as shipping traffic surges by nearly 400% in two weeks under US protection ====== The New York Post reported that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz appears to be waning. The newspaper revealed that shipping traffic in this vital waterway has increased by nearly 400% in the past two weeks, coinciding with more ships using a transit route under US protection. The report revealed that approximately 200 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz last week, compared to about 150 the week before, and only 40 two weeks prior. Shipping traffic in the strait has reached about 20% of its pre-war level. Under normal circumstances, about 20% of the world's seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. From Al Arabiya
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz skyrockets nearly 400%, as analysts say Iran's grip on critical waterway weakens
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz skyrockets nearly 400%, as analysts say Iran’s grip on critical waterway weakens
Live: Hormuz traffic this week is 20% of pre-war average, US says "oil is flowing"
UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to 4% of pre-conflict levels. nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
Reuters: Data shows that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased compared to the previous day and remains in single digits.
Reuters: Initial data shows that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a low level, with only six ships passing through the strait on Tuesday.
Live: Shipping in Strait of Hormuz continues to slow
US Energy Secretary's claim about escorting ships in the Strait of Hormuz The US Energy Secretary claimed:
We will continuously get better at escorting ships out of (the Strait) I don't know when the volume of ship traffic in this waterway will return to pre-conflict levels isna.ir/xdWTPZ
@isna94
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic remains 90% below pre-war levels as security threats persist
Wall Street Journal: Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has decreased fivefold American media:
Maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has decreased fivefold, from about 130 ships to 26 ships per day, due to the risk of attacks and a sharp increase in insurance costs. The cost of insurance for each sea voyage has increased by between $3 and $10 million due to security risks; an issue that has caused oil tankers to seek permission from Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. isna.ir/xdWSB5
@isna94
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has reached its lowest level in three months. Analysis of statistics published by ship traffic tracking institutions shows that the five-day average of vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz has reached its lowest level in three months. A review of statistics by the maritime tracking company "Kepler" shows that in the past five days, an average of only 13 vessels have passed through this international waterway. This figure is the lowest since May 12. This figure includes all types of vessels, from cargo ships to oil tankers. This traffic is about 90 percent less than the average daily maritime traffic before the start of the war against Iran. At that time, 130 ships were passing through this route daily. The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17 to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which saw the five-day average of ship crossings jump to about 60 on June 26. But the agreement collapsed when oil sanctions against Iran were reimposed, contrary to its explicit text. Analysis of new statistics shows that maritime traffic is now about 80 percent below its post-agreement peak. Mizan on social media @mizanplus
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has reached its lowest level in three months Analysis of statistics published by ship traffic tracking institutions shows that the five-day average of vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz has reached its lowest level in three months. A review of statistics by the maritime tracking company "Kepler" shows that in the past five days, an average of only 13 vessels have passed through this international waterway. This figure is the lowest since May 12. This figure includes all types of vessels, from cargo ships to oil tankers. This traffic is about 90 percent less than the average daily maritime traffic before the start of the war against Iran. At that time, 130 ships were passing through this route daily. The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17 to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which saw the five-day average of ship crossings jump to about 60 on June 26. But the agreement collapsed when oil sanctions against Iran were reimposed, contrary to its explicit text. A new analysis of statistics shows that maritime traffic is now about 80 percent below its peak after the agreement. @Defapress_ir
Hormuz shipping traffic falls to one-week low amid hostilities
Live: Vessel traffic through Strait of Hormuz remains muted
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted and almost come to a standstill.
"Without a concrete agreement, the situation will remain very, very unstable": maritime traffic falls again in the Strait of Hormuz after further exchanges of fire.
Where does the news lean?
97YES299NO26neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 83% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.