Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

ResolvedOutcome: NoVol$12.3MResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

65 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOaljazeera.com97%match99¢+1%
Live: Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic rises slightly but remains below average
NOdbws.io95%match99¢+1%
Hormuz vessel traffic falls to two, data shows
NOkommersant.ru93%match99¢+1%
Reuters: Ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz fell threefold over the weekend.
NOiranintlbrk92%match99¢+1%
Reuters: Visible traffic through the strait, which before the war carried a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas, has fallen sharply. Yet Middle Eastern producers continue to export their oil on tankers with their location transmitters turned off.
NOfoxnews.com94%match99¢+1%
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic remains around ‘90% below pre-conflict levels’ as gas prices climb
NOAl Jazeera93%match99¢+1%
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz declines following escalation of attacks in the Middle East
Data shows that daily traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to single digits.
NOiranintlbrk97%match99¢+1%
Reuters: Initial ship tracking data shows that cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to less than 10 ships per day over the weekend, well below the 10-day average of 14 ships.
NOdbws.io93%match98¢+2%
Hormuz shipping traffic falls to single digits, data shows
NOIran's judiciary-run Mizan95%match98¢+2%
International Monetary Fund: Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen by 90% Julie Kozak, spokeswoman for the International Monetary Fund: Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to 10% of the level before the US-Iran conflict. Some countries have used up their strategic oil and gas reserves, but these reserves must be replenished over time. Mizan on social networks @mizanplus‏
NOIran Semi-Official SNN97%match98¢+2%
International Monetary Fund: Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen by 90 percent Julie Kozak, a spokeswoman for the International Monetary Fund, said that shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to 10 percent of its pre-US-Iran conflict level. According to her, some countries have used up their strategic oil and gas reserves, but these reserves must be replenished over time. Get the latest news: Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
NOvedomosti.ru96%match99¢+1%
IMF: Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to 10% of pre-war levels
NONews95%match99¢+1%
URGENT Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is 10% of pre-conflict levels – IMF
NOaljazeera.com93%match98¢+2%
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic drops as regional tensions persist
NOalmayadeenlive92%match98¢+2%
Reuters: Shipping data shows traffic slowing in the Strait of Hormuz at the start of the week as tensions in the region escalate.
NOfoxnews.com95%match98¢+2%
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic plunges to lowest levels since May: report
NOcbsnews.com96%match98¢+2%
Live: Traffic through Strait of Hormuz reportedly hits lowest level since May
NOBelarus State News Agency92%match98¢+2%
Commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level since May.
NOentekhab_news92%match98¢+2%
Reuters: Traffic has dropped sharply after recent attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz Only 2 ships passed through the strait on Saturday and 6 on Sunday; most of them used the Iranian-controlled route / Selected
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level since May.
NOaljazeera.com92%match98¢+2%
Live: Shipping traffic in Hormuz drops to its lowest level since May
NOiranintlbrk93%match98¢+2%
The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization on the social network X, referring to the CENTCOM statement about the targeting of three Iranian oil tankers by American forces on September 4, stated: "Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a lower level than usual. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also continues to attempt to attack vessels and disrupt their traffic."
NOcbsnews.com97%match98¢+2%
Live: Traffic in Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels, data shows
NOiranintl94%match97¢+3%
The Joint Maritime Intelligence Center, on Thursday, September 3, called the threat level in the region's waterways "severe" and announced that the attacks and efforts of the Revolutionary Guard Corps to target or disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continue, including the flying of drones, targeted surveillance of commercial ships, and occasional radio contacts with them. According to the report, commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains below normal levels, and independent data indicates single-digit numbers of ships passing in both directions. The report also mentions the killing of two crew members of the "Sider" oil tanker, which was attacked on the evening of September 29 while passing eastward through the Strait of Hormuz.
NOargusmedia.com93%match97¢+3%
Hormuz vessel traffic drops further: Update
NOIranian Media95%match97¢+3%
Sharp decline in ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz Maritime traffic data shows a significant drop in the number of commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to about 5 per day; a tangible decline that has occurred in the wake of escalating regional tensions and recent military clashes. isna.ir/xdWZ93 @isna94
NOiranintlbrk92%match97¢+3%
Reuters News Agency: Shipping data shows that the number of commercial ships whose passage through the Strait of Hormuz can be traced has dropped to five per day over the weekend [Saturday and Sunday].
NOdbws.io93%match97¢+3%
Vessels crossing Hormuz strait drop to 5 per day over weekend
NONews93%match96¢+4%
The average daily number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from 100 before the war to 7.
NOIranian Media93%match96¢+4%
Al Jazeera: Average number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from 100 before the war to 7 per day/59% of US strategic reserves are empty @iribnews
NOaljazeera.com93%match92¢+9%
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic remains low amid US-Iran standoff
NOtvalmasirah94%match94¢+6%
Urgent Shipping data from Kpler: Cargo vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in 3 months
NOaljazeera.com94%match94¢+6%
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic drops to single vessel on Monday
NOAsharq95%match94¢+6%
Reuters reports: Cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in over three months.
NOSemi-Official YJC News Agency91%match94¢+6%
Guterres: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has almost stopped UN Secretary-General: Only in the Strait of Hormuz, traffic has almost completely stopped. Attacks and disruptions to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have limited the movement of energy, fertilizer and other essential goods. @YjcNewsChannel
YESnypost.com93%match6¢-100%
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz skyrockets nearly 400%, as analysts say Iran’s grip on critical waterway weakens
NOcnn.com93%match94¢+6%
Live: Hormuz traffic this week is 20% of pre-war average, US says "oil is flowing"
NOcnn.com94%match94¢+6%
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic this week was 20% of pre-war average, though US says "oil is flowing"
NOIranian Media93%match94¢+6%
UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to 4% of pre-conflict levels. nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
NOiranintlbrk95%match94¢+6%
Reuters: Data shows that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased compared to the previous day and remains in single digits.
NOalhadath94%match93¢+8%
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains low, with only 6 ships passing through on Tuesday.
NOiranintlbrk95%match92¢+9%
Reuters: Initial data shows that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a low level, with only six ships passing through the strait on Tuesday.
NOdbws.io93%match89¢+12%
Hormuz crossings rise slightly from weekend, remain in single digits, data shows
NOcbsnews.com92%match89¢+12%
Live: Shipping in Strait of Hormuz continues to slow
NOIranian Media93%match88¢+14%
US Energy Secretary's claim about escorting ships in the Strait of Hormuz The US Energy Secretary claimed: We will continuously get better at escorting ships out of (the Strait) I don't know when the volume of ship traffic in this waterway will return to pre-conflict levels isna.ir/xdWTPZ @isna94
NOcnn.com96%match86¢+16%
Live: Hormuz traffic remains at less than a fifth of pre-war average
NOIran's judiciary-run Mizan92%match86¢+16%
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is at a complete standstill
NOfoxnews.com95%match86¢+16%
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic remains 90% below pre-war levels as security threats persist
NOIran Semi-Official SNN94%match84¢+19%
Statistics and figures invalidate Trump's claims about Hormuz Wall Street Journal: Maritime traffic has dropped from more than 130 ships per day to 14 ships, the average traffic in July was only 26 and in June 33 ships, out of 166 crossings in August, only two were made through the US-backed route, and insurance costs have also increased from 0.25% to 10%. In addition to removing more than 2.6 billion barrels of oil from the market, these figures show that control of the Strait of Hormuz is in the hands of Iran, not the US. Get the latest news: Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
NOIranian Media93%match84¢+19%
Wall Street Journal: Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has decreased fivefold American media: Maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has decreased fivefold, from about 130 ships to 26 ships per day, due to the risk of attacks and a sharp increase in insurance costs. The cost of insurance for each sea voyage has increased by between $3 and $10 million due to security risks; an issue that has caused oil tankers to seek permission from Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. isna.ir/xdWSB5 @isna94
NOIran's judiciary-run Mizan97%match84¢+19%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has reached its lowest level in three months. Analysis of statistics published by ship traffic tracking institutions shows that the five-day average of vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz has reached its lowest level in three months. A review of statistics by the maritime tracking company "Kepler" shows that in the past five days, an average of only 13 vessels have passed through this international waterway. This figure is the lowest since May 12. This figure includes all types of vessels, from cargo ships to oil tankers. This traffic is about 90 percent less than the average daily maritime traffic before the start of the war against Iran. At that time, 130 ships were passing through this route daily. The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17 to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which saw the five-day average of ship crossings jump to about 60 on June 26. But the agreement collapsed when oil sanctions against Iran were reimposed, contrary to its explicit text. Analysis of new statistics shows that maritime traffic is now about 80 percent below its post-agreement peak. Mizan on social media @mizanplus‏
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has reached its lowest level in three months Analysis of statistics published by ship traffic tracking institutions shows that the five-day average of vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz has reached its lowest level in three months. A review of statistics by the maritime tracking company "Kepler" shows that in the past five days, an average of only 13 vessels have passed through this international waterway. This figure is the lowest since May 12. This figure includes all types of vessels, from cargo ships to oil tankers. This traffic is about 90 percent less than the average daily maritime traffic before the start of the war against Iran. At that time, 130 ships were passing through this route daily. The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17 to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which saw the five-day average of ship crossings jump to about 60 on June 26. But the agreement collapsed when oil sanctions against Iran were reimposed, contrary to its explicit text. A new analysis of statistics shows that maritime traffic is now about 80 percent below its peak after the agreement. @Defapress_ir
NOcnbc92%match84¢+19%
Strait of Hormuz ship traffic near three-month low as U.S.-Iran deal in doubt
NOcnbc.com92%match84¢+19%
Strait of Hormuz ship traffic near three-month low as U.S.-Iran deal in doubt
NOdbws.io91%match83¢+20%
Hormuz shipping traffic falls to one-week low amid hostilities
NOalarabiya93%match86¢+16%
Shipping data: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz drops to just 6 vessels
NONews93%match86¢+16%
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced to a minimum — Kepler Institute: Only 6 ships passed through the Strait yesterday, none of which were oil tankers
NOibtimes.com95%match73¢+37%
An Announcement To Reopen The Strait Of Hormuz Remains Elusive. Traffic Is Down To a Trickle. • Only two vessels traveled through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday as negotiations with Iran to reopen it continue.
NOaljazeera.com93%match73¢+37%
Live: Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic drops sharply, data shows
NOalarabiya95%match75¢+33%
Following the suspension of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a high-ranking source told Al Arabiya that the Omani-Iranian agreement extends for 60 days without transit fees and paves the way for technical negotiations and the permanent reopening of the strait.
NOcnn.com92%match70¢+43%
Live: Shipping traffic depressed through Strait of Hormuz
NOIran State News Agency92%match69¢+45%
Gharibabadi: The new route in the Strait of Hormuz is temporary but could be valid for 2 to 4 months or more Deputy Minister of Legal and International Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on IRNA's "Diplomacy Desk": To enter the second phase after the understanding with Oman, we need to make a new decision. We must assess whether the US is truly ready to return to its commitments or not. The US sent a message requesting negotiations and resolving issues 4 or 5 days after the start of the new round of conflicts. This route, which is currently being understood with Oman, is considered a "Temporary Route" which could naturally last from two to four months. In paragraph 5 of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, these Iranian arrangements were foreseen for a period of one month; This means that after a month, the situation of ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz should have returned to the previous conditions, that is, the normal conditions before the war. So those arrangements were an Iranian arrangement, and of course we had to subsequently discuss with Oman about the "Future Administration Arrangements" to define and determine future arrangements. However, in the current discussions with Oman, the issue has been foreseen in such a way that this temporary route can continue for a longer period of time; because we do not know what conditions we will face in the future and whether these conditions will reach a stable, sustainable and permanent state or not. The third point is about costs. The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding stipulated that Iran would not receive any costs within 60 days of signing. This issue also depends entirely on the second phase and the decision of the high-ranking officials of the regime to enter the second phase and whether or not the strait will be opened. Because these issues are interconnected and we are not faced with a unilateral commitment that only the Islamic Republic of Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz, but the conditions surrounding us are the same as those during wartime; this is definitely unacceptable. @IRNA_1313
NOWalter Bloomberg97%match69¢+45%
SHIPPING ANALYSTS QUESTION HORMUZ RECOVERY • • Shipping analysts are more cautious than U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on a recovery in Strait of Hormuz traffic. • • While Bessent said a U.S.-Iran deal could come "today or tomorrow," analysts report fewer than 10 ships transiting daily. Kpler recorded just nine crossings on Sunday, including only two tankers. • • Estimated crude flows remain at 3–5 million bpd, far below the pre-conflict 20 million bpd. Saudi Aramco says replenishing inventories could take up to 18 months, even if the strait reopens immediately.
NOalmayadeennews93%match73¢+37%
Bloomberg: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to extremely low levels due to security concerns. What are the details?
NOBelarus State News Agency92%match76¢+32%
Transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains weak amid conflicting news on US-Iran talks

Where does the news lean?

107YES380NO13neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.