Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)Pause–Pause–Pause
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$498Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The Fed’s Rate Cuts Are On Pause. But Are They Also Off the Table? - WSJ • •
The Fed's Rate Cuts Are On Pause. But Are They Also Off the Table? -- WSJ
FED RATES UNCHANGED
YESFirst Squawk98%match33¢+203%
FED’S LOGAN: SAYS MANY FACTORS ARE AT PLAY FOLLOWING THE TARIFF DECISION AND THE OUTLOOK REMAINS UNCLEAR.
YESWSJ Markets98%match25¢+300%
Gold Falls on Prospects of Long Fed Pause
YESFinancialJuice98%match23¢+335%
Fed's Hammack: Right now, I think the Fed should stay on hold here.
YESFinancialJuice98%match23¢+335%
Fed's hammack: Good for the Fed to stay on hold right now, doesn't need to fine-tune rate policy.
YESFinancialJuice98%match22¢+355%
Fed's Hammack Summary:
Fed rate policy could be on hold for quite some time. Inflation is still too high, and tariff issues still in play. There's a risk inflation could stick at 3% this year. It needs to come down. Job market stabilized into a low-hire, low-fire landscape.
YESFirst Squawk98%match22¢+355%
FED’S HAMMACK: FED RATE POLICY COULD BE ON HOLD 'FOR QUITE SOME TIME’
Where does the news lean?
13YES1NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Related markets
See all outcomes for Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.