Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)Cut–Pause–Cut
ResolvedOutcome: Noas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
18 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Investors have continued to push back their expectations for when the Fed will next cut interest rates. Consensus is now that the Fed will not cut rates again this year and that it will be the middle of 2027 when the central bank finally does lower borrowing costs. Odds are currently clustered around a 0.25 percentage point cut to rates at the Fed’s June or July meeting next year.
RATE FUTURES NOW PRICE FIRST FED CUT PUSHED OUT TO APRIL 2027
Live: In charts: Traders have priced next Fed rate cut for March 2027
The Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, with only one person opposing it; it plans to maintain "one" rate cut this year.
Fed Holds Rates Steady, Still Projects One Rate Cut in 2026
NOBloomberg98%match94¢+6%
Gold declined slightly, extending a loss in the previous session, on reduced expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the near term
NOBloomberg98%match94¢+6%
Traders in US futures and options markets are piling on bets that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates into next year instead of raising them
NOFinancialJuice99%match93¢+8%
Traders move Fed cut rate bets back to June
NOFirst Squawk99%match93¢+8%
TRADERS MOVE FED CUT RATE BETS BACK TO JUNE
NOFinancialJuice98%match93¢+8%
Traders now see Fed waiting until July to cut rates.
NO*Walter Bloomberg99%match93¢+8%
TRADERS NOW SEE FED WAITING UNTIL JULY TO CUT RATES
NOFirst Squawk99%match93¢+8%
TRADERS NOW SEE FED WAITING UNTIL JULY TO CUT RATES
NOFinancialJuice98%match96¢+4%
Citi sees Fed rate cuts beginning in May vs March previously.
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match96¢+4%
CITI SEES FED RATE CUTS BEGINNING IN MAY VS MARCH PREVIOUSLY
NOFinancialJuice98%match96¢+4%
Fed's Schmid: Additional Fed rate cuts might permit higher inflation to continue for a longer time.
NOzerohedge98%match96¢+4%
*TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN FED RATE CUT BY JULY VS JUNE PREVIOUSLY
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match96¢+4%
TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN FED RATE CUT BY JULY VS JUNE PREVIOUSLY
NOFirst Squawk98%match96¢+4%
TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN FED RATE CUT BY JULY VS JUNE PREVIOUSLY
Where does the news lean?
1YES20NO8neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
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See all outcomes for Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.