Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
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Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
37 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Omani Hormuz Corridor Evacuated Satellite images show the complete evacuation of the Omani section of the Strait of Hormuz. In the past two weeks, Iran has targeted or warned more than 20 oil tankers from passing through. At the same time as the Strait of Hormuz was closed, the price of Brent crude oil futures has exceeded $104.
Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization: - Average daily transit through the Strait of Hormuz: 15 ships - 6,000 cargo ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the conflict
The Strait of Hormuz is experiencing its lowest traffic in over two months... What's happening?
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at its lowest level in two months... and oil prices rise. Shipping data showed that the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in more than two months, after attacks on oil tankers passing through this vital waterway last week reached their highest level since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz drops to its lowest level in more than two months
Al Jazeera, citing shipping data: The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in more than two months as attacks hit their highest level since the start of the war On Tuesday, only 7 cargo ships passed through the waterway The volume of crude oil passing through the strait also fell by 27% last week from its peak during the war / Selected
Middle East oil exports have exceeded levels seen before the outbreak of US-Israeli hostilities against Iran, Reuters reports, citing Kpler. On September 24, as well as from September 27 to 29, deliveries reached 19.5–22.5 million barrels per day, compared to a pre-war average of about 18 million barrels. By October 1, the seven-day average for exports was 18.5 million barrels per day. LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz also increased in September, reaching their highest level since February. Before the outbreak of hostilities, about 20% of global crude oil and LNG exports passed through the strait. Subscribe to Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
Iran War: Why is so much oil getting through the Strait of Hormuz again?
Saudi Arabia resumes crude oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz, transport volume recovers to 90% of pre-damage levels
Live: Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic rises slightly but remains below average
Hormuz vessel traffic falls to two, data shows
Reuters: Visible traffic through the strait, which before the war carried a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas, has fallen sharply. Yet Middle Eastern producers continue to export their oil on tankers with their location transmitters turned off.
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic remains around ‘90% below pre-conflict levels’ as gas prices climb
Shipping traffic via Strait of Hormuz stays below 10-day average, data shows
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz declines following escalation of attacks in the Middle East
Data shows that daily traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to single digits.
97% decrease in oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz; What do the statistics say? Published statistics on oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz indicate a 97% decrease in oil tanker traffic compared to last year; while Donald Trump talks about controlling the Strait, only one oil tanker passed through this waterway on Friday. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir
The British Maritime Trade Operations Center announced that ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is still about 90 percent below pre-conflict levels, with tankers accounting for the largest share of transiting vessels.
NONews95%match94¢+5%
URGENT Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is 10% of pre-conflict levels – IMF
Live: Six commodity vessels transit Strait of Hormuz amid low traffic
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in four months Reuters, citing data from Kepler:
Cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level since May, with the average daily passage falling to 10 in the past 10 days. No very large oil tanker carrying crude oil has left the strait since Wednesday. isna.ir/xdX2K8
@isna94
Ship tracking company Kpler: Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level since last May over the past 10 days.
HORMUZ DISRUPTIONS SEND TANKER RATES TO RECORD HIGHS • • Tanker freight rates have surged to record levels as restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz squeezes vessel availability, S&P Global Energy says. • • Ship crossings have fallen more than 80% since the U.S.-Iran war began on Feb. 28. • • The strait normally handles about 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG flows. • • The benchmark Middle East Gulf-Japan LR2 tanker rate hit a record $107.72 per metric ton on Aug. 27.
The Strait of Hormuz: Between declining trade and the threat of mines... Transit traffic drops to 15 trips per day, and two-thirds of operations are now uncharted.
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic holds at low levels on Tuesday
Six months since the start of the Middle East war, the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains largely paralysed, with thousands of sailors still stranded in the Gulf and commodity carrier traffic way below its normal level. •
Shipping data: Cargo ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in three months.
New York Post: Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz weakens, and shipping traffic in the strait increases by approximately 400% in two weeks under US protection The New York Post reported that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz appears to be waning. The newspaper revealed that shipping traffic in the vital waterway increased by approximately 400% over the past two weeks, coinciding with more ships using the route under US protection. The report revealed that approximately 200 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz last week, compared to approximately 150 ships the week before and only 40 ships two weeks prior. Shipping traffic in the strait reached approximately 20% of its pre-war level. Under normal circumstances, approximately 20% of the world's seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. #From_the_Event
British maritime authority: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased by 400% in the past two weeks
FWD from Mehr International: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to 4 percent of pre-war levels The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization announced that ship traffic from and to the Persian Gulf has dropped to four percent of pre-war levels in the region. mehrnews.com/x3cRrF @MehrnewsIntl
Kepler reports preliminary data showing ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz halved on Thursday
Kpler data: No increase in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz
Tehran claims to control the Strait of Hormuz, but Kpler data contradicts this: 80% of ships diverted to the Omani route within two weeks, and Iran is only restricting maritime traffic.
60 days after the understanding between Tehran and Washington, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continues with lower traffic levels and oil volumes than before the war.
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic remains at a fraction of pre-war levels
Live: Hormuz traffic remains at less than a fifth of pre-war average
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is at a complete standstill
Where does the news lean?
109YES282NO51neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 83% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for October 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.