Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Open$265Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 12% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES12¢
NO89¢
as of
What moved the odds?
28 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NONews93%match88¢
The average daily number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from 100 before the war to 7.
Al Jazeera: Average number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from 100 before the war to 7 per day/59% of US strategic reserves are empty @iribnews
The International Maritime Organization report, citing tracking data, indicates limited and slow ship traffic and says that very few ships are returning to the Persian Gulf to receive new cargoes because many shipping companies are reluctant to return their large ships through the strait after removing them from the Persian Gulf.
Ship Attack Amidst Hormuz Traffic Stagnation… Reopening Has a Long Way to Go
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic remains low amid US-Iran standoff
The Strait of Hormuz: Between declining trade and the threat of mines... Transit traffic drops to 15 trips per day, and two-thirds of operations are now uncharted.
Six months after the start of the war, trade in the Strait of Hormuz has declined by 85%, and an Iranian closure in response to US-Israeli strikes is strangling a waterway that once handled a fifth of the world's oil and gas exports.
Iran and Oman to hold talks on managing the blockaded Strait of Hormuz; agreement to reach permanent shipping route within 60 days.
Six months since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz... Shipping traffic has declined by approximately 85%, from 95 to 15 ships daily, and thousands of sailors await safe passage through one of the world's most vital energy and trade arteries. #FromTheEvent
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic holds at low levels on Tuesday
Gharibabadi: The southern route of the Strait of Hormuz will be closed; if our requirements are not met, the strait will remain closed Deputy Foreign Minister: The southern route of the Strait of Hormuz will be closed and this is an agreement. Oman agrees that this route will be closed and the matter will be reported to the International Maritime Organization. Negotiations between Iran and Oman for the future management of the Strait of Hormuz will begin, which will take up to 60 days to determine joint arrangements. If Iran's requirements are not met, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. [in reply to: Gharibabadi: The Strait of Hormuz will not open tomorrow; The new route is like a round-trip highway. The Deputy Foreign Minister explained the details of the understanding between Iran and Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing that this understanding does not mean the immediate opening of the strait tomorrow, and that these are two separate issues. For the past 58 years, ships have been passing through Omani waters, and Iran has suffered severe damage. The Strait of Hormuz is now a matter of national security for Iran, and fundamental changes must be made to the entry and exit routes. According to this understanding, the entry route to the Persian Gulf will be through Iranian waters and the exit route through Omani territorial waters, and ships will pass through Iranian waters on both routes. This route is "like a round-trip highway" with a total width of about 7 miles. The route is temporary, and Iran and Oman must negotiate a new permanent route within 30 to 60 days to replace the previous maritime traffic plan. Mizan on social networks @mizanplus]
Gharibabadi: The southern route of the Strait of Hormuz will be closed. Oman agrees that this route will be closed and the matter will be reported to the International Maritime Organization. If Tehran's requirements are not met, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed.
Six months since the start of the Middle East war, the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains largely paralysed, with thousands of sailors still stranded in the Gulf and commodity carrier traffic way below its normal level. •
After the number of transiting vessels dropped from six to one, shipping data shows cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in three months.
Reuters: Cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has reached its lowest level in more than three months Mizan on social media @mizanplus
The number of merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to a new low in more than three months.
Shipping data: Cargo vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz falls to its lowest level in 3 months
Shipping data: Cargo ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in three months.
New York Post: Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz weakens, and shipping traffic in the strait increases by approximately 400% in two weeks under US protection The New York Post reported that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz appears to be waning. The newspaper revealed that shipping traffic in the vital waterway increased by approximately 400% over the past two weeks, coinciding with more ships using the route under US protection. The report revealed that approximately 200 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz last week, compared to approximately 150 ships the week before and only 40 ships two weeks prior. Shipping traffic in the strait reached approximately 20% of its pre-war level. Under normal circumstances, approximately 20% of the world's seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. #From_the_Event
British maritime authority: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased by 400% in the past two weeks
FWD from Mehr International: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to 4 percent of pre-war levels The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization announced that ship traffic from and to the Persian Gulf has dropped to four percent of pre-war levels in the region. mehrnews.com/x3cRrF @MehrnewsIntl
Kepler reports preliminary data showing ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz halved on Thursday
Kpler data: No increase in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz
Tehran claims to control the Strait of Hormuz, but Kpler data contradicts this: 80% of ships diverted to the Omani route within two weeks, and Iran is only restricting maritime traffic.
60 days after the understanding between Tehran and Washington, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continues with lower traffic levels and oil volumes than before the war.
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic remains at a fraction of pre-war levels
Live: Hormuz traffic remains at less than a fifth of pre-war average
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is at a complete standstill
Where does the news lean?
24YES125NO13neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 80% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for October 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.