Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)
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This hub tracks 9 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
The Fed’s Rate Cuts Are On Pause. But Are They Also Off the Table? - WSJ • •
The Fed’s Rate Cuts Are On Pause. But Are They Also Off the Table? - WSJ • •
The Fed’s Rate Cuts Are On Pause. But Are They Also Off the Table? - WSJ • •
The Fed's Rate Cuts Are On Pause. But Are They Also Off the Table? -- WSJ
The Fed's Rate Cuts Are On Pause. But Are They Also Off the Table? -- WSJ
The Fed's Rate Cuts Are On Pause. But Are They Also Off the Table? -- WSJ
Reuters Poll- Federal Reserve to Cut Fed Funds Rate Once or Twice This Year, Said 65 of 82 Economists
Reuters Poll- Federal Reserve to Hold U.S. Fed Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% Range Until at Least September, Said 55 of 82 Economists (63 of 96 Predicted 25 Bps Q2 Cut in March 12 Poll)
Fed’s Miran still believes Fed should cut interest rates
GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks decline as crude gains with central banks on pause
3 reasons the Federal Reserve's interest rate pause is worrying investors
3 reasons the Federal Reserve's interest rate pause is worrying investors
*TRADERS NO LONGER PRICE IN FED INTEREST RATE CUT DURING 2026
TRADERS NO LONGER PRICE IN FED INTEREST RATE CUT DURING 2026
*TRADERS NO LONGER PRICE IN FED INTEREST RATE CUT DURING 2026
The Fed can only wait and wonder
Investors have continued to push back their expectations for when the Fed will next cut interest rates. Consensus is now that the Fed will not cut rates again this year and that it will be the middle of 2027 when the central bank finally does lower borrowing costs. Odds are currently clustered around a 0.25 percentage point cut to rates at the Fed’s June or July meeting next year.
Investors have continued to push back their expectations for when the Fed will next cut interest rates. Consensus is now that the Fed will not cut rates again this year and that it will be the middle of 2027 when the central bank finally does lower borrowing costs. Odds are currently clustered around a 0.25 percentage point cut to rates at the Fed’s June or July meeting next year.
Investors have continued to push back their expectations for when the Fed will next cut interest rates. Consensus is now that the Fed will not cut rates again this year and that it will be the middle of 2027 when the central bank finally does lower borrowing costs. Odds are currently clustered around a 0.25 percentage point cut to rates at the Fed’s June or July meeting next year.
Investors have continued to push back their expectations for when the Fed will next cut interest rates. Consensus is now that the Fed will not cut rates again this year and that it will be the middle of 2027 when the central bank finally does lower borrowing costs. Odds are currently clustered around a 0.25 percentage point cut to rates at the Fed’s June or July meeting next year.
RATE FUTURES NOW PRICE FIRST FED CUT PUSHED OUT TO APRIL 2027
RATE FUTURES NOW PRICE FIRST FED CUT PUSHED OUT TO APRIL 2027
RATE FUTURES NOW PRICE FIRST FED CUT PUSHED OUT TO APRIL 2027
Traders push out bets on Fed rate cut to April 2027, according to Rate-Future pricing.
Live: In charts: Traders have priced next Fed rate cut for March 2027
Live: In charts: Traders have priced next Fed rate cut for March 2027
Live: In charts: Traders have priced next Fed rate cut for March 2027
Live: In charts: Traders have priced next Fed rate cut for March 2027
BREAKING: Federal Reserve holds interest rates unchanged, the second pause this year after three straight rate cuts as policymakers try to navigate through sticky inflation readings, mixed signs on the labor market, and wars overseas.
BREAKING: Federal Reserve holds interest rates unchanged, the second pause this year after three straight rate cuts as policymakers try to navigate through sticky inflation readings, mixed signs on the labor market, and wars overseas.
What is this event about?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm