How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?6.0%
Open$4Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES5¢
NO95¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
POLL: US 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD TO DECLINE TO 4.30% IN THREE MONTHS, 4.28% IN SIX MONTHS, AND 4.26% IN A YEAR (VERSUS 4.26%, 4.26%, AND 4.25%, RESPECTIVELY, IN THE APRIL POLL). ...
Poll: US 10-year Treasury yield to decline to 4.30% in three months, 4.28% in six months, and 4.26% in a year (versus 4.26%, 4.26%, and 4.25%, respectively, in the April poll).
NOzerohedge98%match94¢+1%
7Y high yield 3.790%, WI 3.790%, on the screws.
Where does the news lean?
2YES5NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Related markets
See all outcomes for How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.