How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?5.0%
Open$83Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 23% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES23¢
NO77¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The 10-year Treasury yield could test 5% after its latest spike. Here’s why
NOFinancialJuice98%match86¢-10%
Treasury WI 5Y yield 3.608% before $70 billion auction.
YESBloomberg99%match11¢+109%
The 10-year Treasury note’s yield is headed for a fifth straight week of minimal change, rivaling its longest stretch of inertia in the past two decades
YESFinancialJuice98%match13¢+77%
Treasury WI 20-year yield 4.799% before $13 billion auction.
YESBloomberg99%match9¢+156%
Treasury yields climbed to the highest in more than two months
Where does the news lean?
13YES1NO15neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
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See all outcomes for How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.