How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?4.8%
Open$60Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 68% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES68¢
NO33¢
as of
What moved the odds?
18 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NY bonds fall; 10-year Treasury yield reaches 4.73%, briefly at a 18-month high.
TREASURY SELLOFF GATHERS MOMENTUM • • U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the curve after Fed officials Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack defended their calls for a 25 bp rate hike, boosting expectations of near-term tightening. • • The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.737%, its highest intraday level since January 2025, as investors increased bets on higher rates.
YESReuters95%match62¢+10%
US 10-Year Treasury Yields Rise to 4.7388%, Highest Since January 2025
NY bond market sees decline in long-term bonds; 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.67% due to persistent inflation concerns.
10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 18-Month Intraday High -- WSJ
US 10-year Treasury yields rise to 4.7%, the highest since January 2025 #Arabic_Business
10-Year Treasury Yield Heads for New 2026 High -- WSJ
NOReuters99%match64¢-50%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Rise to Near 8-Month High at 4.4055%
NOzerohedge98%match86¢-63%
*TREASURY YIELDS EXTEND DECLINES; 10-YEAR FALLS TO 3.97%
NOJoe Weisenthal98%match86¢-63%
The 10-year yield is sub 4%
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match85¢-62%
*TREASURY 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO 4.01%, LOWEST SINCE NOV. 28
YESFirst Squawk99%match14¢+386%
US TREASURY 30-YEAR YIELD RISES 3BPS TO 4.88%
YESFinancialJuice98%match17¢+300%
Treasury WI 20-year yield 4.799% before $13 billion auction.
YESFinancialJuice98%match15¢+353%
Treasury WI 30 year yield 4.774% before $22 billion auction.
YESSolid Intel 📡98%match17¢+300%
INTEL: The U.S. 10-year yield has risen to 4.2%, its highest level since September 4
NOFirst Squawk98%match84¢-62%
US 10-YEAR NOTE SALE: HIGH YIELD 4.175% (VS 4.074%), BID-COVER 2.55 (VS 2.43), DIRECT 21% (VS 22.6%), INDIRECT 70.2% (VS 67%), WI 4.175%.
YESFinancialJuice98%match16¢+325%
US 10-YEAR NOTE HIGH YIELD ACTUAL 4.175% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 4.074%) $MACRO
NOFinancialJuice98%match84¢-62%
Treasury WI 10 Yr yield 4.175% before $39 Bln auction
Where does the news lean?
17YES12NO18neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
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