How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?4.8%
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$76Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
17 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surpasses 4.8%... highest since November 2023
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surpasses 4.8%... highest since November 2023
NY bonds continue to fall; 10-year Treasury yield reaches 4.80%, highest level in 1 year and 8 months, weighed down by rising oil prices and expectations of interest rate hikes.
NY bonds fall; 10-year Treasury yield reaches 4.73%, briefly at a 18-month high.
TREASURY SELLOFF GATHERS MOMENTUM • • U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the curve after Fed officials Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack defended their calls for a 25 bp rate hike, boosting expectations of near-term tightening. • • The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.737%, its highest intraday level since January 2025, as investors increased bets on higher rates.
YESReuters95%match62¢+61%
US 10-Year Treasury Yields Rise to 4.7388%, Highest Since January 2025
NY bond market sees decline in long-term bonds; 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.67% due to persistent inflation concerns.
10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 18-Month Intraday High -- WSJ
US 10-year Treasury yields rise to 4.7%, the highest since January 2025 #Arabic_Business
10-Year Treasury Yield Heads for New 2026 High -- WSJ
NOReuters99%match64¢-100%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Rise to Near 8-Month High at 4.4055%
NOzerohedge98%match86¢-100%
*TREASURY YIELDS EXTEND DECLINES; 10-YEAR FALLS TO 3.97%
NOJoe Weisenthal98%match86¢-100%
The 10-year yield is sub 4%
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match85¢-100%
*TREASURY 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO 4.01%, LOWEST SINCE NOV. 28
YESFirst Squawk99%match14¢+614%
US TREASURY 30-YEAR YIELD RISES 3BPS TO 4.88%
YESSolid Intel 📡98%match17¢+488%
INTEL: The U.S. 10-year yield has risen to 4.2%, its highest level since September 4
YESFinancialJuice98%match16¢+525%
US 10-YEAR NOTE HIGH YIELD ACTUAL 4.175% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 4.074%) $MACRO
Where does the news lean?
21YES15NO40neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
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See all outcomes for How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.