How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?4.6%
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$42Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
19 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
POLL: US 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD TO DECLINE TO 4.30% IN THREE MONTHS, 4.28% IN SIX MONTHS, AND 4.26% IN A YEAR (VERSUS 4.26%, 4.26%, AND 4.25%, RESPECTIVELY, IN THE APRIL POLL). ...
Poll: US 10-year Treasury yield to decline to 4.30% in three months, 4.28% in six months, and 4.26% in a year (versus 4.26%, 4.26%, and 4.25%, respectively, in the April poll).
NOReuters99%match44¢-100%
Reuters Poll-U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield to Decline to 4.30% in Three Months, 4.28% in Six Months and 4.26% in a Year (Versus 4.26%, 4.26% and 4.25%, Respectively, in April Poll)
NOReuters99%match51¢-100%
Reuters Poll-U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield to Rise to 4.26% in Three Months, Hold That Level in Six Months and 4.25% in a Year (vs 4.17%, 4.20% and 4.25% in March Poll)
*TREASURY 10-YEAR, 30-YEAR YIELDS RISE TO SESSION HIGHS
NY bonds fall, 10-year Treasury yield at 4.34% despite better-than-expected employment figures.
10-year Treasury yields rise to highest level since July 2025
TREASURY YIELDS EXTEND CLIMB, 10-YEAR TO YTD HIGH 4.32%
NONews99%match72¢-100%
Reuters Poll-U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield to Rise to 4.17% in Three Months, 4.20% in Six and 4.25% in a Year (vs 4.20%, 4.19% and 4.29% in Feb Poll)
YESFirst Squawk99%match31¢+223%
U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD RISES TO 4.259%, HIGHEST SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER
YES*Walter Bloomberg98%match16¢+525%
US 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS BRIEFLY REACH 4.211%, HIGHEST SINCE SEPTEMBER 4
NOFirst Squawk99%match79¢-100%
US TREASURY 30-YEAR YIELD RISES 3BPS TO 4.88%
NOFinancialJuice98%match73¢-100%
Treasury WI 20-year yield 4.799% before $13 billion auction.
YESFinancialJuice98%match24¢+317%
US 30-YEAR BOND HIGH YIELD ACTUAL 4.773% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 4.694%) $MACRO
NOFinancialJuice98%match76¢-100%
Treasury WI 30 year yield 4.774% before $22 billion auction.
YESSolid Intel 📡98%match21¢+376%
INTEL: The U.S. 10-year yield has risen to 4.2%, its highest level since September 4
NOFirst Squawk98%match80¢-100%
US 10-YEAR NOTE SALE: HIGH YIELD 4.175% (VS 4.074%), BID-COVER 2.55 (VS 2.43), DIRECT 21% (VS 22.6%), INDIRECT 70.2% (VS 67%), WI 4.175%.
YESFinancialJuice98%match20¢+400%
US 10-YEAR NOTE HIGH YIELD ACTUAL 4.175% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 4.074%) $MACRO
NOBloomberg99%match81¢-100%
Treasury yields climbed to the highest in more than two months
Where does the news lean?
9YES11NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
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