How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?4.4%
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$21Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
10-year Treasury yields rise to highest level since July 2025
TREASURY YIELDS EXTEND CLIMB, 10-YEAR TO YTD HIGH 4.32%
YESinvestinglive_99%match47¢+113%
Treasury yields creep higher again, eyes on 4.20% •
NONews99%match53¢-100%
Reuters Poll-U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield to Rise to 4.17% in Three Months, 4.20% in Six and 4.25% in a Year (vs 4.20%, 4.19% and 4.29% in Feb Poll)
NOJoe Weisenthal98%match49¢-100%
The 10-year yield is sub 4%
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match49¢-100%
*TREASURY 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO 4.01%, LOWEST SINCE NOV. 28
YESFinancialJuice99%match80¢+25%
Treasury WI 10-year yield 4.163% before $42 billion auction.
YESFirst Squawk99%match77¢+30%
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbs 4 bps to 4.2459%.
YESFirst Squawk98%match56¢+79%
10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs to 4.267%, Reaching September Peak – Tradeweb Data
YESFirst Squawk99%match56¢+79%
U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD RISES TO 4.259%, HIGHEST SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER
Where does the news lean?
10YES3NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
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See all outcomes for How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.