How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?4.5%
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$37Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
27 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NY bond market: Long-term bonds remain flat; 10-year Treasury yield at 4.47%, briefly reaching an 11-month high due to US inflation concerns.
TREASURY 30-YEAR YIELD AT 5.041% AHEAD OF $25 BILLION AUCTION.
TREASURY 10-YEAR YIELD RISES TO 4.49%, HIGHEST SINCE JULY • • VaR shock time
US 10-year Treasury yields rise to their highest level since July at 4.487
YESNews99%match85¢+18%
*TREASURY 10-YEAR YIELD RISES TO 4.49%, HIGHEST SINCE JULY
YESReuters98%match85¢+18%
US 10-Year Treasury Yields Rise to 4.489%, Highest Since July
POLL: US 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD TO DECLINE TO 4.30% IN THREE MONTHS, 4.28% IN SIX MONTHS, AND 4.26% IN A YEAR (VERSUS 4.26%, 4.26%, AND 4.25%, RESPECTIVELY, IN THE APRIL POLL). ...
Poll: US 10-year Treasury yield to decline to 4.30% in three months, 4.28% in six months, and 4.26% in a year (versus 4.26%, 4.26%, and 4.25%, respectively, in the April poll).
NOReuters98%match21¢-100%
Reuters Poll-U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield to Decline to 4.30% in Three Months, 4.28% in Six Months and 4.26% in a Year (Versus 4.26%, 4.26% and 4.25%, Respectively, in April Poll)
NOReuters99%match28¢-100%
Reuters Poll-U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield to Rise to 4.26% in Three Months, Hold That Level in Six Months and 4.25% in a Year (vs 4.17%, 4.20% and 4.25% in March Poll)
*TREASURY 10-YEAR, 30-YEAR YIELDS RISE TO SESSION HIGHS
NY bonds fall, 10-year Treasury yield at 4.34% despite better-than-expected employment figures.
10-year Treasury yields rise to highest level since July 2025
NOJoe Weisenthal98%match57¢-100%
The 10-year yield is sub 4%
YESzerohedge98%match45¢+122%
7Y high yield 3.790%, WI 3.790%, on the screws.
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match55¢-100%
*TREASURY 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO 4.01%, LOWEST SINCE NOV. 28
YESFinancialJuice99%match52¢+92%
Treasury WI 10-year yield 4.163% before $42 billion auction.
YESFirst Squawk99%match56¢+79%
U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD RISES TO 4.259%, HIGHEST SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER
YES*Walter Bloomberg98%match32¢+213%
US 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS BRIEFLY REACH 4.211%, HIGHEST SINCE SEPTEMBER 4
NOFinancialJuice98%match65¢-100%
Treasury Wi seven-year yield 3.933% before $44 billion auction.
NOFinancialJuice98%match70¢-100%
Treasury WI 20-year yield 4.799% before $13 billion auction.
NOFinancialJuice98%match71¢-100%
Treasury WI 30 year yield 4.774% before $22 billion auction.
YESSolid Intel 📡98%match32¢+213%
INTEL: The U.S. 10-year yield has risen to 4.2%, its highest level since September 4
YESFirst Squawk98%match31¢+223%
US 10-YEAR NOTE SALE: HIGH YIELD 4.175% (VS 4.074%), BID-COVER 2.55 (VS 2.43), DIRECT 21% (VS 22.6%), INDIRECT 70.2% (VS 67%), WI 4.175%.
YESFinancialJuice98%match31¢+223%
US 10-YEAR NOTE HIGH YIELD ACTUAL 4.175% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 4.074%) $MACRO
NOBloomberg99%match72¢-100%
Treasury yields climbed to the highest in more than two months
YESFirst Squawk98%match27¢+270%
U.S. 10-YEAR YIELD RISES 2BPS TO 4.12%, HIGHEST SINCE NOV. 20
Where does the news lean?
17YES15NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Related markets
See all outcomes for How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.